2026 Kentucky Derby picks, odds, predictions, favorites: Best bets from expert who had $1,045 payout last year

The 2026 Kentucky Derby is set to run on Saturday at Churchill Downs with the post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. How much money a horse has earned in its career is one way to evaluate the field. It's no surprise that Renegade, Commandment and Further Ado -- three of the top favorites in the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds -- are among the top earners -- all with at least $940,000.

>Also near the top of the money list is Silent Tactic, but he was scratched on Wednesday morning, bringing Great White into the 2026 Kentucky Derby field. Renegade is the 4-1 favorite, while Commandment and Further Ado are both 6-1. Great White is one of three longshots at 50-1. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Gene Menez.

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>A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

>In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby.

>Menez excels on horse racing's biggest days. In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall. Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot. He hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48. In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout. And earlier this year, on Fountain of Youth day, he struck big, hitting the late Pick 5 for $4,648.

>Last year Menez put his handicapping skills up against the best horseplayers and finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country.

>Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.

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>One of Menez's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Renegade (4-1), even though he's the morning-line favorite. The Todd A. Pletcher-trained colt earned his status as the favorite following wins at the Arkansas Derby and the Sam F. Davis Stakes this year. Renegade, however, also lost two races to Paladin earlier in the year before Paladin was injured and removed from Kentucky Derby consideration.

>It's a fairly tight list of favorites with six horses at 15-1 or lower on the morning line. Menez is concerned that Renegade is a late-running closer and will need a clean trip, and could drop ground if he tries to pass horses outside late in the race. See who to back at SportsLine.

>Another stunner: Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, even though he's not one of the top-three favorites at 8-1. "If the blinkers make even a little bit of difference, then Chief Wallabee is a major player considering there's not much difference between him and, say, Commandment," he said. Menez is using Chief Wallabee prominently in his wagers.

>Chief Wallabee is trained by William Mott. The 72-year-old has over 5,400 career wins, including the 2019 and 2025 Kentucky Derby. At last year's Derby, his horse Sovereignty won by 1 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track. Chief Wallabee enters the Derby with one win in three career races. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

>Menez's top pick is a horse who was "the big winner of the post draw." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is the "best value in the race." Menez is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

>Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who had a $1,045 payout at last year's race.