2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds: Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs favored and taking heaviest action

Ladies and gentlemen, football is back! Well, the first exhibition game isn't until Aug. 6, but a couple of NFL teams' rookies already have reported to training camp. A handful of several teams' veterans will report by the end of the week – all must report by July 28. Thus, I will certainly start touching more on football in this space, and today I want to look at Detroit Lions running back Jahymr Gibbs, who probably will be the first overall pick in your Fantasy draft if you still compete in such a thing and it's not a Dynasty league.

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>If I happen to wager on player futures props in any sport, I always look toward a guy with major contract motivations, and that's the spot the 24-year-old Gibbs is in. Because he was a first-round pick in 2023, Gibbs is now eligible for an extension on his rookie deal, and he might become the highest-paid running back in league history.

>While the Lions disappointed last season, in large part due to injuries and having to replace both their offensive and defensive coordinators, Gibbs had another monster year. He had 1,223 yards rushing and 13 scores, along with 77 catches for 616 yards and five scores. His 18 total touchdowns were second in the NFL.

>While Gibbs' rushing numbers were slightly down from 2024, all his receiving numbers were career highs. His 49 career touchdowns are an NFL record through a player's first three seasons in the league. He is the second player in NFL history to average at least 5.0 yards per carry in each of his past three seasons (minimum of 150 attempts in each).

>Gibbs is tied for the second-best average yards per touch (5.9) of any running back in his first three seasons since the 1970 merger (minimum 750 touches). Finally, Gibbs is first in scrimmage touchdowns (38) and third in scrimmage yards (3,768) the past two seasons.  He is the only player in franchise history to have multiple seasons with 17 or more touchdowns.

>Dude is going to get paid, but he and Atlanta tailback Bijan Robinson – taken four spots ahead of Gibbs in 2023 – are somewhat in a standoff, with neither wanting to set the market first. The Eagles' Saquon Barkley reset the top of the tailback market in March 2025 by signing a two-year extension with Philadelphia at $20.6 million per year.

>Late last week, DraftKings was kind enough to release updated trends for NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Gibbs is the +700 favorite and leads all players in both tickets and handle, although the book didn't give me those exact numbers – Robinson (+850) is second in both. Without question, OPOY is now a non-quarterback award, while MVP is pretty much for QBs.

>Detroit's only two winners of Offensive Player of the Year were legendary tailback Barry Sanders in 1994 and '97. Gibbs has a lot more offensive talent around him than Robinson does, that's for sure, and he's now the clear featured back after Detroit traded David Montgomery to Houston in March. Gibbs and Montgomery had 15 games where they each scored a TD, the most by a duo in NFL history. The Lions were 15-0 in those.

>Montgomery had 172 touches last year, and many of those will go straight to Gibbs, who took 67% of the offensive snaps in 2026 after getting 56% in 2024 and 57% as a rookie. Some Lions beat writers expect a number close to 75% this year.

>"He's going to be our bell cow now," Dan Campbell said to the media. "He really became more of that last year, but we're going to hang our hat on him quite a bit. We're going to do a lot of things we feel like he does well."

>To lead the NFL in rushing yards, Gibbs is a +700 fourth favorite but is the +550 co-leader for most touchdowns with Baltimore's Derrick Henry. Gibbs is set at Over/Under 1199.5 yards and 12.5 rushing scores, along with 449 receiving yards and 4.5 receiving TDs.

>To be the first NFL player this season with three rushing scores, he is the +700 leader and is a +750 fourth favorite to be the first player to rush for 150 yards. To hit the magic 2,000 yards rushing, Gibbs is +1600.

>Finally, DK has some Yes-only specials on Gibbs: To rush for 200 yards in any game (+350), at least 50 rushing yards in all 17 games (+1200) and +4000 to break the NFL single-season record of 31 combined rushing and receiving TDs set by Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 with the Chargers.

>Check out Jahmyr Gibbs props and more NFL picks at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets:

>If we take Gibbs' average the past two seasons but extrapolate that to 300 carries (he had 243 and 250 in those seasons), he'd rush for 1,603 yards and 18 scores. For Week 1, Detroit is a 7-point home favorite vs. New Orleans, and the SportsLine Projection Model forecast Gibbs for 15.5 carries, 75 rushing yards and 1.00 TDs along with 4.2 catches for 37 yards and 0.33 TDs.