College football betting, odds: Why is No. 4 Ole Miss an underdog against No. 21 Florida?

The No. 4-ranked Ole Miss Rebels are surely riding high after a 32-24 win on Saturday night against former coach Lane Kiffin in one of the most hyped — and memorable — regular-season college football games in some time.

style="text-align: left;">Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (33-of-48, 363 passing yards, three total TDs) led Ole Miss to a win over their former coach Kiffin and Chambliss vaulted atop the Heisman odds board after the performance.

style="text-align: left;">But heading into a game at No. 21 Florida on Saturday, Ole Miss has been installed as a 3.5-point underdog by oddsmakers, something that Florida head coach Jon Sumrall even seemed surprised about. When he was told by the media that Vegas oddsmakers had his team as a favorite, he joked that, “There's a lot of good drugs out there.”

style="text-align: left;">So just how rare a situation is this?

style="text-align: left;">If the line holds, it will mark only the fifth time since 1978 that a top-five ranked team is an underdog against a team ranked outside of the top 20, per ESPN research. The previous four top-five teams not only didn’t cover any of the games, but went 0-4 outright as well.

style="text-align: left;">Contributing to the line is the status of Ole Miss star running back Kewan Lacy, who left the LSU game with an “upper-body injury” and didn’t return. Although X-rays were negative on his shoulder, Lacy is listed as a game-time decision.

style="text-align: left;">It’s no surprise that the betting public is all over the Rebels, with the vast majority of wagers at multiple sportsbooks so far on Ole Miss to cover. One oddsmaker noted that it’s been “one-way action” on Ole Miss, especially on the moneyline.

style="text-align: left;">So why, exactly, is Florida favored?

style="text-align: left;">The answer is a combination of several factors, according to oddsmakers that Yahoo Sports spoke with, but the biggest ones are a Florida team under Sumrall whose power rating has increased (somewhat under the radar) and a tough emotional letdown spot for Ole Miss after a huge win.

style="text-align: left;">“The Lacy injury is definitely something, but I think you have a couple other big parts here,” Seamus Magee, BetMGM’s lead college football trader, told Yahoo Sports. “For one, this is pretty bad spot for Ole Miss, having to go to the Swamp after playing what felt like their Super Bowl. And another is I think Florida has seen a pretty decent upgrade on the market. The offense looked great with Aaron Philo and Jadan Baugh last week in Auburn.”

style="text-align: left;">Home-field advantage is generally worth more in college football than in the NFL, and the Swamp in Gainesville is one of the sport’s best venues, potentially worth 2.5-3 points to the spread, according to one oddsmaker.

style="text-align: left;">“What’s been missed the past few weeks is how good this Sumrall team looks on both sides of the ball,” Joey Feazel, head NFL and college football oddsmaker at Caesars Sports said. “No oddsmaker bases their market on who is ranked and who isn’t. The line is more based on this being a pretty even matchup and Florida is a very tough place to play.”

style="text-align: left;">We should be set for another great Saturday of college football and all eyes will be on this matchup to see if Ole Miss can defy the odds.

style="text-align: left;">