Everton vs Liverpool: Opposition Analysis | Seize the Day, in European Push!

It’s been a highly unpredictable season, in many ways and the fight for what appears to constitute a very large number of European places offers ever-changing fortunes, as the campaign draws to a close. The most optimistic cohort of Blues fans may have considered Everton to have had an outside shot at qualifying for the Conference League this term, on the back of the team’s rapid turnaround in form since David Moyes returned in January last year, but they would have been pretty small in number.

Still, the Toffees sit in eighth spot in the table, ahead of the weekend’s round of fixtures, which if the season ended then, would have been good enough for Europe. A point secured on the road last time out, late on against unlikely rivals Euro-rivals Brentford, meant the club kept pace with the West London minnows, extending their current strong run of form to 3 wins and a draw from the last five outings, maintaining momentum, and keeping spirits buoyant. 

Following three weeks of inactivity, the visitors started sluggishly, which dogged them again after halftime. To rally from behind twice, having played poorly for close to half the match, speaks to the individual character possessed by many of the players – most notably Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who has no quit in him – as well as the esprit de corps which has become evident on Moyes’ watch. Hosting city rivals Liverpool for the first time at their new stadium on the banks of the Royal Blue Mersey, fans will trust those qualities to be on full display again on Sunday afternoon.

Form

If Arne Slot made winning the Premier League title at the first time of asking easy last term, then this season has been a rude awakening, one in which the Dutchman’s very future at the club will be in doubt when the powers-that-be at Anfield come to assess it. At the end of the summer, Liverpool – champions by ten clear points and having spent almost €483m on reinforcements – were widely considered to be favourites for a repeat. It hasn’t quite worked out as planned. The club waved goodbye to an important player, in Luis Díaz, banking a tidy €70m for the left winger, who has since performed impressively at Bayern Munich, amassing 42 goal contributions in all competitions. The Colombian was second only to Mohammed Salah as Liverpool’s league scorer, and they’ve struggled to replace him.

Promising young centre half Jarell Quansah was also let go (€35m, Bayer Leverkusen), at a time when Liverpool’s defensive tandem of Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate have declined, one due to age and the other riddled with inconsistency. Expensive replacements for the team’s starting fullbacks – the departing Trent Alexander-Arnold and a declining Andy Robertson – have underwhelmed. A rejigged attack, intended to be spearheaded by €145m man Alexander Isak and playmaker Florian Wirtz (€125m), has failed to deliver, for various reasons. The club’s summer-long pursuit of Isak was finally secured on deadline day, with the Newcastle United striker arriving severely undercooked, after abstaining from preseason in order to force the move. He’s yet to get going. 

With Díaz gone, Isak either injured or not performing, Wirtz taking an age to adapt to the style of football in England and Salah undergoing a staggeringly rapid decline, much of the scoring burden has fallen on Hugo Ekitiké, signed five weeks before the Isak deal was confirmed, and theoretically relegated to the role of backup striker — quite something for a player signed for €95m. The Frenchman has performed ably, but faces a long layoff after suffering an Achilles injury in midweek action, during Liverpool’s 4-0 aggregate UCL defeat by Paris Saint-Germain. After a promising start to the campaign, in which they won their opening five league games, including a 2-0 win over Everton at Anfield, the Reds hit a terrible patch, suffering nine defeats from 12 in all competitions, before stabilizing over the winter. They’ve never truly recovered however, and arrive at Hill Dickinson Stadium having lost six from ten. Still, terrible seasons are a relative thing, so they still find themselves in fifth spot, with a very good chance of qualifying for the Champions League. Sigh!

Team Assessment

Slot has stuck resolutely to his 4-2-3-1, possession-based system all campaign. Long gone are the days of aggressive high-energy counterpressing, which saw the team regain its prominence as title contenders and European heavyweights under Jürgen Klopp, following years of drift and false dawns. It wouldn’t be unfair to say that the 47-year-old’s approach this term has been much scrutinized, and roundly criticized, including by much of the fanbase. Are they a team in transition, from a direect, high-pressing one, which seemed at its best when the game was in a chaotic state, to a controlled style of play? If so, will they reach that destination, or will Slot be dispatched, ignominiously, just a year after leading the team to league triumph? The odds are firmly stacked on the latter outcome.

With Alisson sidelined, Giorgi Mamardashvili, signed as the Brazilian’s eventual replacement almost two years ago, will continue in goal. The 25-year-old Georgian is a capable deputy, but has only kept two clean sheets in 17 appearances. Van Dijk is highly experienced, but at 34 he’s lost more than a step and is no longer the elite centre half of yore. Konate’s decline has been more puzzling, as he should be at, or approaching his peak, yet has fallen off a cliff this term, with errors aplenty creeping into his game. Milos Kerzek, who enjoyed a breakout year at Bournemouth last season, has looked defensively suspect, but the right side has been a bigger problem. Jeremie Frimpong, more of a wingback in Germany, has struggled badly at fullback, with attacking midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai often preferred — and more effective.

The visitors’ midfield will probably consist of Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister, playing in front of Ryan Gravenberch. The Dutch holding midfielder was possibly Liverpool’s key man last term, and his efforts in screening the defence probably hid some early vulnerabilities. However, this season he’s had too much to cover. Arguably the team’s best player has been Szoboszlai, who has ably fitted in wherever he’s been asked to, but his frequent absence from central midfield has been noticeable, and has probably impacted Mac Allister, who’s been less effective as a result. Wirtz, signed to play in an advanced central playmaking role, has often been shifted to the left in an effort to shore up the midfield.

Ekitiké’s unfortunate injury has complicated the Liverpool attack. Isak has been eased back into action following a lengthy layoff with a broken leg and looked unfit against PSG, managing just five touches before being removed at half time. He may lead the line on Sunday, but it’s questionable how long he’ll last. Salah came off the bench on Tuesday, and scored against Fulham in his last league appearance. The 33-year-old posted a stunning 34 goals and 23 assists last term, across all competitions, but has slipped to just eleven and nine respectively this season — quite the drop-off. The talisman has fallen out with Slot and cut an unhappy figure for most of the campaign; the announcement that he’s departing in the summer came as no surprise. Cody Gakpo split time with Díaz on the left last season, and has been the incumbent this term, though he’s recently been used up top, which may be the case again tomorrow. If so, expect either Wirtz or – if Slot is in the mood to gamble – the exciting teenager Rio Ngumoha to line up wide.

Prediction

There are a lot of intangibles to consider! Have the Blues, off of consecutive home wins, most notably against a UCL-calibre opponent, in Chelsea, last time out, got over their funk at Hill Dickinson? After all, the hosts still have earned more points on the road (26) than at their new home (22) this season. The visitors have lost their last five away games: against Wolves, Galatasaray, Brighton, Manchester City and PSG, in which they’ve scored only twice, conceding seven. On paper, Liverpool do possess a strong side, but that’s been the case all season; undeniably, they’ve underperformed considerably. However, Everton cannot allow any complacency. The Reds played fairly well against PSG midweek — albeit on home turf and ultimately, in a losing effort.

For their part, the Blues cannot get off to the kind of slow start which afflicted their play last weekend, for Liverpool, despite their travails, are still a side which is likely to finish top five, or six and accordingly should not be underestimated. It’s probable that Everton’s initial torpor was down to not playing in the previous three weeks, so we should see them back to normal on Sunday. The team played cautiously at Anfield, effectively handing the game to their opponents before they got going, but that game was seven months ago and can be discounted. Moyes will send his men out to play with energy, ambition and tenacity, in front of a supportive crowd, we can be sure of that.

As regards the Toffees side, I see no changes from those who took to the pitch against the Bees last weekend. Beto is in good goalscoring form, with four in his last five outings, and typically troubles van Dijk and Konate with his physical, unpredictable – even awkward – style. The only doubt is whether Tyrique George, quick and direct off the bench last time out, has a shot at displacing Dwight McNeil, who was anonymous; however, I don’t see this happening. The Blues have a great shot at beating their illustrious opponents here, if they get about what figures to be a fairly demoralized unit, who are coming off a 4-0 FA Cup trouncing by City, as well as a resounding UCL exit to what was a vastly superior PSG side. I see Everton securing victory in the inaugural Merseyside derby at HDS.

Scoreline: Everton 2-0 Liverpool

Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com