Fantasy Baseball: On Matt McLain and how spring training stats can lead you astray (or to greatness)

I know a lot of fantasy baseball pundits say it's a mistake to put any emphasis on spring training stats, but I can't help it. I'm always looking for outliers, extreme stats that might signal a breakout or an underrated player. Sure, the practice games are filled with players who are experimenting or not using their full arsenal, but there are also guys battling for starting positions and roster spots. It's not a primary source of my March rankings, but I consider the exhibition stats.

>This is a long way of getting to Matt McLain. I can't seem to pick my lane on him.

>McLain was a darling in the spring: .509/.559/.981, with seven homers. He had the best slugging percentage in baseball. He walked six times against seven strikeouts, stole a couple of bases. I thought back to the star McLain was in 2023 (.290/.357/.507, 16 homers, 14 steals in just 89 games) and started dreaming big. Maybe the timing was right entering his age-26 season; he seemed finally healthy after missing all of 2024 and meandering through a down season last year.

>When March started, I thought McLain might be a sleeper pick. By the end of the month, I was ready to draft him proactively.

>Then the real games started. McLain couldn't seem to make contact, let alone hit. He had a sorry .196/.294/.320 slash through two months; the walks were okay, the strikeouts a problem. There were a handful of steals (seven) and the occasional homer (five), but that doesn't cover a guy hitting under .200. The Reds opened the year with McLain batting second, but soon he was in the lower third of the lineup — if he was playing at all.

>I even saw some speculation that the Reds might be better off optioning McLain to the minors. Okay, that came from me.

>But things have started to break McLain's way in June. Elly Da La Cruz was injured at the end of May, which forced the Reds to start McLain at shortstop. And right on time, McLain's game caught fire. He's rocking a .333/.462/.857 slash this month, with five walks against six strikeouts.

>More importantly, the category juice has popped. McLain hit three homers over the weekend against St. Louis, then stole three bases in Tuesday's win over the Padres. Maybe the sirens of 2023 are singing again. Homers and bags, sometimes these things come in glorious bunches. A little confidence can go a long way.

>De La Cruz could miss another 1-3 weeks — that's still up in the air. McLain could slide back to second base when Elly returns, provided McLain's offensive game is still robust. Bottom line, when we see plausible upside with players, we need to consider pickups. McLain's roster tag slid under 50% in recent weeks, so make sure he's not sitting unclaimed on your waiver wire.

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>The March stats also gave us some signal with Jake Bauers, who hit seven homers and posted a .462/.571/.1.154 slash. He had more walks than strikeouts, even stole three bases. The Brewers don't always play him against lefties, though he's been credible against them. But his bat really sings in the platoon advantage: .293/.399/.558, with 10 homers in 147 at-bats. Lucky for Bauers, it's a right-handed world.

>I understand if you laugh off these exhibition hitting stats, wondering about levels of competition and even if the opposing pitchers are trying their best. But what about pitching stats? Every hitter is trying, right? I like to sort the K/BB charts at the end of the month, see what's what.

>It's not a perfect science, of course. Mick Abel (27 strikeouts, 4 walks) was pitching well before injury, but Ryne Nelson (23/2) hasn't been reliable this year. Tanner Bibee (19/0) remains more tease than anything, with an ERA over 4.

>But I still like this process for identifying sleeper potential. You're going to churn the back quarter of your roster anyway. Emerson Hancock (21/1) was a spring darling and he always had pedigree — he was the sixth overall pick in his draft class. Kyle Harrison (20/4) was another pedigree case, and he was moving to one of the smartest teams in baseball, the Brewers. Will Warren (22/3) was a draft-day steal, or a waiver-wire find. Ryan Weathers (21/4) is another steady rotation piece for the Yankees.

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>Finding surprise pitching is a key to any fantasy season. One of my favorite fantasy teams this year is a co-managed club that was in last place as recently as a month ago, but it's in the top half now, legitimately in contention. The main reason this team has rallied is the upside-down shape of the roster — our late picks and pickups are somehow outplaying the early-round selections.

>Sounds crazy, but it's true. Miguel Vargas, Otto Lopez and Dillon Dingler are three inexpensive offensive heroes, and the theme is even more pronounced on the mound. While the early staff assembly of Hunter Brown (hurt, hopefully back soon), Logan Gilbert (just an eyelash under projection), Cole Ragans (ugh) and Luis Castillo (look out below) hasn't been fun, the staff has been saved by guys like Harrison (32nd round), Hancock, Braxton Ashcraft, Michaels Soroka and Wacha, and others.

>Louis Varland has been a savior in the bullpen, but you know how bullpens go — variance and attrition carry the day. The longer I play this game, the more I think it's wise to build your bullpen on the fly — don't pay much for it on draft day.

>Not every cheap pick pans out, of course. Brendan Donovan got hurt. Shane Smith was a miss. Brady House started fast but it didn't last. But you don't have to hit on that many low-investment plays to come out ahead. Just a few clicks keep you going. And this is a keeper league — Harrison, Vargas and Dingler could be fun holdovers for next year, or intriguing trade pieces in a few weeks if my co-manager and I decide to go for it this year.

>We've won three championships together, me and my buddy Herb. Flags fly forever. Enjoy every sandwich. But I think this upside-down team is the club I've enjoyed the most.

>One more thing — we were the guys who took the McLain bait at the draft. Will this be a happy ending or a brief mirage? We actually cut McLain a week ago (at my insistence), then quietly reacquired him Sunday.

>The Reds and Padres finish their series in a few hours. Maybe it's the day McLain gets elevated back to the top of the lineup. Plausible upside, gamers.

>Dare to dream. Learn to live upside down.