Free MLB home run picks July 17: Nationals' red-hot James Wood among expert's best bets for Friday

The second half of the 2026 MLB season gets fully underway on Friday with a loaded 15-game slate with all 30 teams in action. While every team has played more than 81 games at this stage, Friday is the first full day back from the All-Star Break earlier this week. With 15 games on the docket, let's look around baseball at the updated odds to lead MLB in homers this year before getting into my favorite home run prop picks of the day.  Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber tops the majors with 32 homers, which were the fifth-most by a player in his age-33 season or older before the break and most by a Phillie. He didn't go yard in Thursday's standalone game vs. the  Mets.

>Back in the spring, the Yankees' Aaron Judge was the +350 favorite to lead the majors in homers and Schwarber was +800, but the latter is now the clear -130 favorite. Schwarber has led the NL twice but never all of MLB. The last Phillie to do that was Ryan Howard with 48 in 2008. Schwarber's updated season total is 52.5.

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>Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.

>Last Friday, my home run picks were the Cubs' Seiya Suzuki and Yankees' Austin Wells -- even though Wells is having one of the worst offensive seasons of any big-league regular. While Suzuki didn't homer in Cincinnati, he did cash Over 1.5 total bases (all my HR picks mean I like that prop even better) with two hits, including a double. Wells did homer at Washington, only his sixth dinger of the year, to pay out at +459. Believe I've now hit a HR prop in two of the past three Fridays. Look at me!

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>My late grandfather was named James Wood and so is my uncle, so now I have a personal connection to this Washington at Sacramento matchup with a first pitch of 9:40. While the minor-league Sutter Health Park perhaps isn't quite as homer-happy as Coors Field, it's pretty close as it seems like it's always about 100 degrees and the winds blowing out at least 10 mph in California's capital city. Maybe a cold front went through because it will only be about 85 at first pitch tonight, but the winds are cooperating.

>I couldn't care less about the Home Run Derby, but it surely would have been more interesting had the Nationals' Wood been in it (he participated in 2025) as he sits tied for fourth in the majors with 28 homers -- 12 in his past 12 games -- and has as much pure power as anyone in the majors. While Wood was 0-for-1 with a strikeout in Tuesday's All-Star Game, he homered in each of the previous three games, all solo shots in home losses to the Yankees.

>This month overall, Wood is raking to the tune of a .441 average, 1.789 OPS and seven homers. Back in the day, you would never see a guy like Wood leading off but instead hitting in a 3-4-5 spot. But indeed he does hit first, which can mean an extra at-bat in a lot of games, which he might not get hitting cleanup. And he scores a lot of runs, leading the majors by a mile with 89. He might become the first player since Jeff Bagwell in 2000 to reach 150 runs in a season. Wood's nine leadoff homers lead the majors and are tied for the most in a season in Nationals history with Alfonso Soriano (2006).

>I will say that the lefty-hitting Wood has better splits off right-handers, which is no shock, and faces a lefty tonight in touted Athletics prospect Gage Jump, which is just an absolutely cool name. But Jump has really struggled in that Sacramento bandbox at 1-3 with a 6.20 ERA and all four homers allowed this season compared to a 0.75 ERA in four road starts. It will be Jump's first look at Wood.

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>If there is a game at Coors Field, I'm going to try to have a home run prop from it. The Reds and Rockies open a weekend set at 8:40 ET. Again, the thin air makes Rockies games nearly an auto-play for me regardless but with massively struggling Cincinnati right-hander Brady Singer on the mound, that clinched it. It'll be in the low 90s in Denver tonight with winds blowing to left about 9 mph.

>Singer was a solid pitcher the past few years with the Reds and Royals but is 3-9 with a 4.72 ERA this year, and if you wagered $100 on the Reds to win each of his starts, you would be down about $600. Singer does not throw particularly hard or strike out many batters so he gives up homers. His 20 allowed are tied for fifth-most -- to be fair, he also plays in a hitter-friendly home park. Yet Singer has a 2.98 ERA at Great American Ball Park this year with a .228 opponents' batting average compared to going 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA on the road with a .331 opponents' BA.

>The lone Rockies batter with more than five career at-bats off Singer is second baseman Willi Castro. He has seven homers on the season and is hitting .317 at home compared to .208 away. Castro, who is one of the majors' better utility players and has played all four infield spots this year and two in the outfield, has two homers in 21 ABs vs. Singer. No other active Colorado player has gone yard off him.

>I was hoping to include a Cincinnati hitter as well, but I don't know much about 24-year-old rookie Rockies starter Gabriel Hughes (0-0, 3.00 ERA) as the Alaska native makes his third big-league appearance and has yet to allow a homer in nine innings.