History suggests Fernando Mendoza is a longshot for a good rookie year

The Raiders expect (or at least "hope") that Fernando Mendoza will elevate this franchise to heights it hasn't seen in a decade, and sustained heights not seen in 25 years. But if that happens, it probably won't be evident in his rookie campaign. If history is any guide, he's in for a rough debut.

In the past 28 NFL drafts, 21 quarterbacks have been taken #1 overall, beginning with Peyton Manning in 1998. He started all 16 games that season, compiling an impressive (for that era) 3,379 passing yards and 26 TD passes. Oh, and 28 interceptions. His two top targets were future Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison (only 26 years old) and Marshall Faulk (only 25). One could argue that if Manning instead were throwing to a couple of middling rookies and a couple of journeymen receivers, he would have fared much worse.

It turns out that Manning had one of the only half-decent rookie seasons among these 21 #1 overall picks. Michael Vick, David Carr, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Trevor Lawrence also threw more interceptions than touchdown passes. Injuries curtailed seemingly promising rookie years for Joe Burrow. Bryce Young looked barely adequate, and Sam Bradford didn't look much better.

Statistically, the only relative standouts were Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams. Jameis Winston was borderline "very good." Essentially, if we include Peyton Manning, only one-third of the QBs taken #1 overall these past three decades produced stat lines that arguably justified their selection.

But here's the thing: these seven guys had advantages that Mendoza doesn't. In addition to Manning having Harrison and Faulk, Newton threw to Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Jeremy Shockey, and a strong backfield tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Luck slung the ball to Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. Mayfield had Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, and Duke Johnson -- one of that era's most effective pass-catching RBs.

Meanwhile, Murray had Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and a three-headed backfield that netted 76 receptions. Williams leaned heavily on D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and catch-friendly RB D'Andre Swift. Winston had Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, along with a wildly efficient and reception-heavy backfield.

So expectations for Mendoza should be quite low, and not because of the presence of Kirk Cousins. Once the rookie takes the field, he'll be throwing to Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty. Not bad. But his WR corps currently is led by Tre Tucker, who has only 123 career catches. Mendoza also isn't much of a rushing threat, so he'll be leaning heavily on his receivers. Bowers and Jeanty can take him only so far.

Mendoza might end up being the Raiders' best quarterback since Ken Stabler. Or he might be even better. For now, temper expectations in Year 1.

This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: History suggests Fernando Mendoza is a longshot for a good rookie year