How Fred VanVleet can steady the Houston Rockets' turnover-prone offense if he can stay healthy

Rockets guard Fred VanVleet missed all of the 2025-26 season so his return will be a key for Houston in many areas. (Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle) Fourth in a series of Rockets player previews ahead of the 2026-27 season.

>Fred VanVleet didn't get a 2025-26 season, robbed of a chance to play with Kevin Durant and a revamped Houston Rockets squad due to a torn ACL suffered days before training camp opened.

>The Rockets filled his spot with Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard. The young talents gained valuable experience, but it came amid learning moments (translation: mistakes).

>Houston finished the season with the league's 7th-best offensive rating but much of that was due to its offensive rebounding dominance. They ranked 19th in points per play in the halfcourt, 17th in effective field goal percentage (which factors in the added weight of 3-pointers) and 28th in turnover percentage, per Cleaning the Glass.

>VanVleet should help with all of that, but especially the last category. The point guard is one of the league's best turnover suppressors. In 2024-25, he reduced the Rockets turnover rate by 2.5 percentage points - a mark in the 97th percentile among all players, per Cleaning the Glass.

>Houston was 3.2 points per 100 possessions better with VanVleet on the court than when he sat, continuing a near-career-long trend. VanVleet has made his teams better when he plays in eight of his nine seasons.

>In 2024-25, VanVleet led the Rockets and ranked 32nd in the league in DARKO, a predictive advanced metric that incorporates box score, tracking and on-off stats.

>Perhaps the only demerit in that season was below-average efficiency - VanVleet's effective field goal percentage dropped to 48.4%, the lowest since his rookie season, per Cleaning the Glass. He shot just 34.5% on 3-pointers, the second-worst mark of his career and a steep drop-off from 2023-24, when he shot 38.7% from deep.

>Much of that decline was due to reduced effectiveness on pull-up threes - a shot VanVleet should have to take less often on a Rockets team with Durant and improved young talents.

>Coach Ime Udoka said he expects VanVleet to start when healthy. The Rockets are relying quite heavily on the veteran guard to captain the offense. It's a decent bet based on the guard's track record but one with real risk, considering he'll turn 33 during the season and is coming off a serious injury.

What to watch in the first 20 gamesThis is a tough one because VanVleet himself acknowledged there's no substitute for game action and doesn't expect what we see early in the season to be the finished product.

>Where does the rust, if there is any, show up? Is VanVleet still effective protecting the ball and captaining an efficient Houston offense? He's been one of the better defensive guards for years - does that remain the case?

>Where VanVleet starts in his return to NBA action could be instructive in determining where he could get to as the season progresses.

Nerd statIn 2024-25, the Rockets without VanVleet would have finished with one of the league's worst turnover rates. With him on the floor, they would have finished with the third-best mark.

A successful season for VanVleet is…A healthy campaign where he continues limiting his team's turnovers, improves the Rockets' offensive execution and remains an above average perimeter defender.

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SubscribeThere’s more to Houston with the Chronicle. Subscribe today for just 25¢.This article originally published at How Fred VanVleet can steady the Houston Rockets' turnover-prone offense if he can stay healthy.