Iowa Football Preview 2026: Can the Hawkeyes Win Just a Little Bit More?

Why fight it?

Iowa keeps on winning, and winning, and winning, and it's not enough.

Under Kirk Ferentz, the Hawkeyes have been consistently strong for over two decades, holding the dubious distinction now of being the winningest Group of Four program in the College Football Playoff era not to make the playoff.

And because of that, everyone seemingly wants to change Iowa football, or at least give it a big tweak from its ultra-conservative, "punt, baby, punt" style.

Iowa Will Keep Winning Whether You Like It or NotIowa head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during an NCAA Big Ten Conference football game against Nebraska, Friday, Nov. 25, 2022, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.© Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

But this is Iowa.

It's a power program in the biggest and best conference, but it doesn't have the resources or recruiting power of the Ohio States and Oregons - and now, the Indianas - of the league.

>It has to play to its style, keep fielding good team after good team, and at some point, hope it all bounces the right way - the 2015 team was one tackle away from making the four-team CFP.

But ask Nebraska how things have gone since messing with a formula that made it an annual national title contender. And how's Wisconsin doing over the last few seasons after going away from what dominated?

>Iowa lost to Indiana by five. It pushed Oregon in a fantastic 18-16 game, lost at USC by five, and dropped the date at Iowa State by three. It was achingly close to a special season.

It won nine games, and last year, 88 other college football teams wished they did, too.

- 2026 Iowa Schedule Analysis

Iowa Quick HitsHead Coach: Kirk Ferentz (28th year, 213-128) • >Best Case / Worst Case: A spot in the College Football Playoff/The first full season with fewer than eight wins since 2014 • >Key Player: Zach Lutmer, CB/S Jr. • >2025 Record: 9-4 • >Biggest Question: Can Iowa possibly be a little bit better with so much turnover on both sides of the ball?Iowa Key 2025 StatsBroken Up Passes: Iowa 44, Opponents 18 • >Iowa No. 2 in the nation in fewest penalties (39), only behind Army • >Fumbles: Opponents 17 (Lost 3), Iowa 11 (lost 5)OffenseYou know how this works.

Iowa will control the clock, will do everything possible not to screw up, and it'll crank up the downfield pass only if absolutely necessary.

There's less returning talent than normal, and there's not a ton happening through the portal, so this will be a bit of a test for offensive coordinator Tim Lester and a system that keeps on rumbling along.

What’s WorkingThe system. It's never fun to have an offensive style that's built around living to fight another day, but it works. It starts with converting third and fourth downs.

Iowa converted a solid 43.5% of its third down tries last season, and that's not a given. This was a problem in 2022 and 2023, and being more efficient was a big glitch that was fixed over the last two years.

>It doesn't take that much to make it all work. The Hawkeyes ran for 133 yards or more ten times last year and won nine - the lone loss coming on the road in the fight against USC.

They're 20-2 over the last four seasons when getting to 150 yards or more.

Leading rusher Kamari Moulton is back after averaging over five yards per carry with 878 yards and five scores.

>The offensive line is good. It's hardly a shocker that Iowa has a strong offensive front again, and it starts with tackle Trevor Lauck, and in Kade Piper and Leighton Jones returning in the interior.

Guard Trent Wilson from James Madison was the only lineman brought in through the portal.

What Needs WorkA quarterback has to emerge. Part of the reason for all the conversions was the running of former starter Mark Gronowski - he was second on the team with 545 yards and ran for 16 scores.

Now it's a fight for the gig between Hank Brown, who saw a little time last year, and Jeremy Hecklinski, a smallish passer who can move a little. Neither one is as good as Gronowski was.

>The downfield passing still won't be there. It's so maddening at times. The Hawkeyes just do not take enough chances down the field, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt - middle of the pack is around 7.5 - and fewer than seven in seven games. They were 4-3 in those games.

>Here's the margin for error problem. When you don't have any sort of high-octane element to the offense, you just can't make mistakes.

Iowa turned it over twice in three games last year. Two of those games were the tight losses to Indiana and Oregon. Since 2019, Iowa is 5-19 against FBS teams when turning it over more than once.

Player to WatchDJ Vonnahme, TE Soph. He has all the makings of Iowa's next great NFL-caliber tight end.

The 6-4, 240-pound sophomore led the team with 29 catches for 434 yards and three scores. He was a downfield element averaging 15 yards per grab.

DefenseNinth in the nation last year in total defense, 20th in 2025, 7th in 2023, 2nd in 2022, 16th in 2021 ... you get the idea. Phil Parker's defense keeps making everything else possible.

Why take any big risks on offense when the defense always seems to come through with big stops?

This year's defense is undergoing a bit of an overhaul, but this is a true case of Next Man Up.

What’s WorkingThe secondary is loaded with options. The Hawkeyes didn't do much for some areas in the portal, but they went off with defensive backs to fill in the lost parts and build up the safeties.

Zach Lutmer is one of the nation's best all-around defensive backs, Deshaun Lee is a playmaker at corner, and getting safeties Anthony Hawkins (Villanova), Tyler Brown (James Madison), and Cody Haddas (Ohio State) matters.

>Getting off the field. The Hawkeyes were great on third downs and dominant on fourth downs. They led the nation, allowing just five of 21 fourth down conversions (23.8%). Only Old Dominion was under 30%.

>The linebacking corps reloaded. Jayden Montgomery made 44 tackles in the rotation before starting in the middle over the second half of last year, and Landyn Van Kekerix and sophomore Cam Buffington should be ready to produce.

Let's put it this way - Iowa didn't get any linebackers through the portal.

What Needs WorkIt's Iowa - the defensive line will be great. However, there's a lot missing with everyone needing to be replaced.

Pretty much anyone who came up with a sack up front is gone, and now it's up to Kenneth Merrieweather and Iose Espenesa to take over on the outside.

Lance Ingold (Northern Illinois) and Kahmari Brown (Elon) will be thrown into the rotation right away.

>The defensive line thing, Part 2. The tackles. The great combination of Aaron Graves and Jonah Pace is done, but Bryce Hawthorne saw plenty of time in the rotation, and Brice Stevenson (Holy Cross) and Emmanuel Olagbaju (North Dakota) are ready out of the box.

>More takeaways would be nice. Iowa is used to cranking up tons of big plays, averaging more than 23 takeaways a season from 2021 to 2024.

It forced just 14 last year with eight coming in a midseason three-game stretch, and with a mere three fumble recoveries overall.

Player to WatchZach Lutmer, S Jr. He can play anywhere, but he's at his best in the hybrid safety role that allowed him to come up with 71 tackles with three picks and seven broken up passes. Let him roam and let him make lots of big things happen.

Keys to the SeasonGet strong all-around quarterback play. • >Find more pass rushing pop among all the new linemen. • >Get big plays out of the relatively new receiving corps.Player Who Needs To ShineJeremy Hecklinski, QB Soph. or Hank Brown, QB Jr. Technically, Mark Gronowski was one of the greatest college football quarterbacks to ever play at Iowa - he was the winningest QB in NCAA history, if we're counting all he accomplished at South Dakota State.

He wasn't able to turn it loose with the passing game, but his running - especially in the red zone - and experience carried the team time and again. Hecklinski and Brown are totally different players, but one of them has to try filling Gronowski's shoes.

Biggest ConcernThe pass rush. The defense did just fine with just 26 sacks and 63 tackles for loss, but it would be nice to get more production and big plays in the backfield.

Out of those 26 sacks just four came in the four losses. One new starter on the edge needs to make offenses worry.

Biggest Gameat Michigan, September 26 Beating the Wolverines in the Big Ten opener wouldn't be just a big deal, it could be a must. There's an honest shot at an 0-3 Big Ten start before going to Minnesota with a loss.

Not only do the Hawkeyes start the Big Ten season with three road dates in the first four games, but the home game in the four is against Ohio State, and there's a trip to Seattle to deal with Washington to follow.

Transfer PortalThe Hawkeyes didn't do too much in the portal, but they also didn't lose enough key players to cause anyone to lose any sleep.

The secondary got the most immediate help, with the defensive front and receiving corps not far off. It was a micro-targeted haul of transfers to help boost, not overhaul.

Best SigningAnthony Hawkins, S (Villanova) There were plenty of strong signings by the Hawkeyes, but Hawkins has the talent and upside to make the biggest immediate impact in one of the few true need places.

As a freshman, he made 59 tackles with two picks and nine broken up passes for Villanova, and he should step in right away for ...

Biggest LossKoen Entringer, S (Louisville) Edge rusher Brian Allen to Vanderbilt is the one other key loss, but Entringer made the far bigger impact last season with 73 tackles and four broken up passes. He was a rock of a strong safety who'll be great for the Cardinals.

Other Names to KnowTony Diaz, WR (UT Rio Grande Valley) • >Emmanuel Olagbaju, DT (North Dakota) • >Tyler Brown, S (James Madison)CFN Season PredictionIs this really when Iowa finally wins that one extra game or two to get into the College Football Playoff, especially the expanded version?

No, but it doesn't mean it can't be a big-time player in the Big Ten title chase if all of the new starters can be great right away.

>The schedule, and the talent and experience on the team, scream seven wins in a struggle, but when you win eight games or more ten straight years - taking out the 6-2 season of 2020 - it's crazy not to give the benefit of a few doubts.

CFN Prediction: 8-4

There's no Indiana, Oregon, or USC on the slate - those were three of the four losses last season. There's also no Penn State, which matters this year.

>However, Ohio State is a home game, and road dates at Michigan, Washington, Minnesota, Northwestern - for real, the Wildcats are dangerous - and Illinois won't be easy.

Try not to be frustrated about what the program isn't. Iowa does a lot of winning, and it's about to do a whole lot more.

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