MLB insider comments on AL Cy Young Award race & it’s not as clear-cut as expected

The American League Cy Young race has turned into one of the most compelling individual battles in baseball. With less than a month remaining in the regular season, Yankees rookie Cam Schlittler and Blue Jays ace Dylan Cease have separated themselves from the pack.

>The final few weeks could determine who takes home the award. MLB Network analyst Jon Heyman summed up the situation perfectly: “September will decide this race.”

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Schlittler has the statistical edgeJul 29, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler (31) walks back to the dugout during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)Right now, Schlittler has the advantage in several of the categories voters traditionally look at.

>The Yankees right-hander has made 28 starts, compared to 25 for Cease, and owns a 2.09 ERA across 163.2 innings. He has also recorded 201 strikeouts and 42 walks, along with a 0.97 WHIP.

>Cease, meanwhile, has been the American League’s strikeout king. Through 25 starts, he has 217 strikeouts, the most in the AL, while posting a 2.33 ERA over 150.1 innings. He has a 1.05 WHIP and 65 walks.

>Schlittler’s advantage in ERA, innings and WHIP gives him a strong statistical case, while Cease’s enormous strikeout advantage keeps him firmly in the conversation.

>The Yankees rookie has also been remarkably consistent. He recently lowered his AL-leading ERA to 2.09 after throwing 5.2 scoreless innings against Boston, while surpassing 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career.

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September could decide everythingMar 28, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Dylan Cease (84) looks on against the Athletics during the third inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-Imagn ImagesThat’s what makes the final month so important.

>Cease has already demonstrated that he can dominate at an elite level, including a stretch in which he recorded at least seven strikeouts in 19 consecutive starts, the first such streak since Randy Johnson in 2001.

>Meanwhile, Schlittler has continued to hold his advantage in the most important traditional statistics while pitching deeper into games than Cease. As of the start of September, current odds still have Schlittler as the favorite, but Cease remains close enough that a dominant final month could completely change the race.

>And that’s exactly why Heyman’s comment is so important.

>Neither pitcher has completely run away with the award. Schlittler has the ERA and workload advantage. Cease has the strikeout advantage and has continued to produce dominant outings despite pitching for a Toronto team fighting for a playoff spot.

>One bad start could swing the race. One dominant September could do the same.

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