The Open Championship is wide open: Can the unknowns hold off a motivated Bryson DeChambeau?

Historically — and by “historically” we’re talking the last 40 years — the winner of The Open Championship has been within four shots after Round 2. With Lucas Herbert, on the strength of his stunning 62, sitting at -8, that leaves 16 players in “historical” contention.

>Let’s take a look at the contenders, and their chances to win:

1. Lucas Herbert (-8)If there has ever been a disappointing 62, this is it. Herbert had a five-footer for par at 18 for a first-ever 61 in a major championship only for it to lip out. He handled the miss as well as anyone could — “It just wasn’t meant to be,” he said. But the pressure only increases from here, especially for someone who’s never sniffed a major championship.

>Chance to win (per Data.Golf): 9.2%

T2. Jackson Suber (-6)Like Herbert, Suber has never been in contention at a major. But also like Herbert, Suber has been swinging the club well as of late, with three top 10s already this year. He handled holding the first-round lead pretty well, firing a 1-under 69 to maintain a position near the top. It would be remarkable for someone who’d never been to Europe before, let alone hadn’t played links golf until Monday, to win The Open, but that is what Suber is trying to do.

>Chance to win: 3.1%

T2. Cam Young (-6)He’s the best player on Tour never to have won a major. He’s ranked fourth in the world. And he’s been in contention plenty at majors, with top-four finishes in all four. That’s the good. The bad? Has not winning gotten into his head?

>Chance to win: 9.3%

T2. Ryan Gerard (-6)Gerard turned pro four years ago, but didn’t get full Tour status until last season. He’s won once, finished T8 at the PGA Championship last year. That said, he’s worked his way up to No. 28 in the world, ahead of the likes of Patrick Cantlay and Shane Lowry.

>Chance to win: 5.7%

T5. Sam Burns (-5)Say hello to the other player who carded a 62 on Friday. Also, to a player who finished runner-up a few weeks ago at the U.S. Open and was T7 at the Masters. Burns has been knocking on the major door for a few years. He wasn’t even supposed to be in England this week, expecting to be home for the birth of a child, but his daughter came early.

>Chance to win: 4.9%

Bryson DeChambeau is driven by a rules offical on a buggy following day two of the The 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.Richard Heathcote via Getty ImagesT5. Bryson DeChambeau (-5)It was all going smoothly for DeChambeau after carding a birdie at 18 to move within a shot of the lead. And then he got a tap on the shoulder, and eventually a two-shot penalty for a rules violation that happened hours earlier. There’s a question as to whether he will play tomorrow or withdraw in protest. But even with the penalty, he’s still very much in contention.

>Chance to win: 4.8 % (11.5% before penalty)

T5. Si Woo Kim (-5)He’s ranked No. 21 in the world, but when it comes to majors, Si Woo Kim is typically nowhere to be found. In 37 majors, he has just one top 10 — a year ago at the PGA. He’s also missed the cut 17 times, including five times at The Open. So this is unchrated territory for him.

>Chance to win: 6.4%

T8. Scottie Scheffler (-4)Scheffler got off to a great start, with four birdies on his first six holes of Round 1. But he hasn’t done much since, carding just XX birdies in his last 30 holes. It’s not that he hasn’t had his chances. He leads the field in birdie opportunities under 10 feet. He just hasn’t made many putts. Through his first 13 holes Friday, he’d drained a total of 21 feet in putts before dropping a six-footer at 14 — to that point his longest made putt of his round. And yet … he’s just four back.

>Chance to win: 11.2%

T8. Tommy Fleetwood (-4)There will be no louder cheers than the ones for Fleetwood this weekend, who is not only looking for that elusive first major, but will be trying to do it just 17 miles from where he grew up.

>Chance to win: 7%

T8. Jon Rahm (-4)While DeChambeau got a two-shot penalty, Rahm avoided one for chucking his club. Lucky him. It’s hard to believe it’s been almost four full seasons since his last major victory, but it’s not like he hasn’t knocked on the door with six top 10s in between. No one would be surprised if Rahmbo were hoisting the Claret Jug Sunday night.

>Chance to win: 5.3%

T8. Robert MacIntyre (-4)Bobby Mac is a bit of a throwback, one who is capable of running the table and also flipping it over — just depends on which way the putts are rolling. He has three top 10s at The Open, so he knows how to play links golf. (Would be a stunner if a player from Scotland didn’t.) If he’s going to win a major, conventional wisdom says this championship would be it.

>Chance to win: 4.1%

T8. Alex Fitzpatrick (-4)Well, he’s already won a U.S. Open so … wait a second, Alex???? Let’s be real about the younger Fitzpatrick brother: Some didn’t like him getting his Tour card on the back of winning the team event with his older and more accomplished brother. That said, Alex has shown he belongs. He’s put himself in contention, albeit early, at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open this year. And now, while his brother will miss the weekend at Royal Birkdale, he will start the weekend in contention.

>Chance to win: 2.9%

T8. Matt Wallace (-4)The last time Wallace was in contention at a major was the 2019 PGA Championship. The last time he was in contention at The Open was … never. Sensing a theme here.

>Chance to win: 1.5%

T8. Bud Cauley (-4)Cauley was a prominent amateur whose pro career has never really taken off. But … he did pick up his first career PGA Tour win just a few weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open. So he’s playing with some confidence.

>Chance to win: 1.6%

T8. Thomas Detry (-4)Another newcomer to major contention, Detry did finish T4 at the PGA Championship a few years ago. But that is his only top-10 finish at a major.

>Chance to win: 1%

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T8. Francesco Molinari (-4)Remember him? The smiling Italian is best known for his 2018 Open Championship victory when, paired with Tiger Woods on the final round, shot a 69 to Tiger’s 71. That earned him a three-shot victory, becoming the first Italian to win a major championship. He hasn’t been in contention much since, so this would be a shocker.

>Chance to win: 1%

Lurking …TXX. Rory McIlroy (-1)This feels like one of those backdoor top 10s McIlroy was famous for during his major drought. That said, we’ve seen that 62 is out there, and McIlroy is certainly capable of going on a heater. He’ll probably need two heaters to get back in this thing.

>Chance to win: 1.4%