The real world consequences of the Man City verdict stretch far beyond football

In a story where so many involved do not feel they can say a thing, Manchester City chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak evidently felt the authority to talk.

>He also felt he needed to, as he issued a letter to supporters regarding Friday’s news that the club is expected to be found guilty of nearly all of the charges in the notorious Premier League case. This is big business for Abu Dhabi interests, but it’s also personal, as illustrated by Al Mubarak’s reference to friends and family.

>While the club chairman pointed to how his letter “underwent several legal checks to make sure it complies” to “the strict confidentiality of the legal process”, it was strident.

>“Our confidence and intent in proving the Club’s innocence is just as strong as when this began,” wrote Al Mubarak, as he also referenced two previous statements from the club, including from the day the charges first dropped in February 2023.

>It was the latter which contained the oft-quoted description of a “comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence”, that here became “so many things that I would like to be able to share with you to help you understand why we feel so confident in our position” but the point stands.

>Going by the anticipated outcome, the independent panel appears to have found much of that evidence quite refutable.

>Two other lines that stood out were: “There remain many who want to undermine the momentum of our club. We will not give them that opportunity.”

>Given that was in a letter about the Premier League case, it should be re-iterated that the competition was duty-bound to pursue an investigation from Der Spiegel’s leaks in November 2018.

>Either way, despite multiple legal sources insisting to the Independent this is now a very challenging case for City, there was a marked bullishness about Al Mubarak’s stance.

>It is a bullishness that many at political level would recognise.

Chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak remains bullish over Manchester City's innocence (PA)This entire story has brought discussion about whether UK trade deals with the United Arab Emirates could be at risk, and that is not out of nothing.

>In 2015, the Guardian reported that the UAE had threatened to block billion-pound arms deals, if David Cameron did not take a harder stance on the Muslim Brotherhood political group.

>Leaked documents detail Al Mubarak, widely seen as the country’s de facto prime minister and closest advisor to president Mohammed bin Zayed, warning the UK government that “the difficult conversations we’ve been having, will become far more difficult”.

>Some senior football executives would say they recognise the tone. It should be stressed that Al Mubarak is widely described as a “respectful gentleman” and “charming deal-maker”, as befitting a statesman with multiple business roles, but there can also be a real steel that reflects his political power.

>This can be sensed in some of his interviewed comments on the City case, and the very leaked emails that sparked this entire story.

>It was Al Mubarak who infamously said of the previous Uefa case that he “would rather spend £30m on the 50 best lawyers in the world to sue them for the next ten years”.

The result of the Manchester City case could have ramifications beyond football as Al Mubarak holds major political influence in Abu Dhabi as well (Getty)Such a deft ability to navigate different situations comes from a cultured if also difficult background. Al Mubarak is the son of the UAE’s former ambassador to France, Khalifa Ahmad Mubarak, who was assassinated in 1984.

>Some from diplomatic circles who know Al Mubarak say this personal tragedy naturally strengthened a deep patriotism. On growing up, he was part of a talented generation that former ruler Sheikh Zayed insisted go to the best foreign universities so Abu Dhabi could develop an intelligentsia beyond the ruling family.

>The 50-year-old has since risen to become the most influential non-royal in the UAE. Aside from being in the room when Bin Zayed meets heads of state, his many roles include chairman of the centrally powerful Executive Affairs Authority and chief executive of the Mubadala wealth fund, as well as chairman of City.

>The core point to this is that the club’s overall approach and playbook are just extensions of the UAE’s. Many in geopolitics have already long drawn parallels with responses in the state’s violation of arms embargoes in Sudan and Libya.

>With a US cable previously describing Al Mubarak as “a powerful behind-the-scenes player”, his very presence at City has long spoken to the club’s importance to the state. While the chairman himself has long insisted Sheikh Mansour bought the club in a private capacity, he also told journalist David Conn that “there is almost a personification of the values we hold as Abu Dhabi, with the values of the club”.

If the case goes against Man City owner Sheikh Mansour could face a humiliating public relations disaster (PA)And that is where there may also be another personal element for Mansour. He is at the forefront of this project, and individually associated with it.

>As it stands, pending the outcome and appeal, he will also be associated with a humiliating public relations disaster. Political sources have wondered whether that could affect his very standing in Abu Dhabi.

>A negative final outcome in this case could even result in the removal of key individuals from the club.

>If that were to include the chairman - which sources do insist is highly unlikely - would there be any precedent for that in elite-level football, given how senior a political figure he is?

>Is there any precedent for this case at all?

>It is not just the size of it - in terms of charges and length of time - that makes it probably the biggest such controversy in major European football history, but the geopolitical scale.

>No such case has gone to state levels like this, where it could have a bearing on Abu Dhabi's reputation.

>The geopolitics that Al Mubarak is so familiar with also bring other layers.

>At ownership level, the Premier League does now involve a lot more private equity, a sphere which is currently said to be seeing a lot of investment from Abu Dhabi funds. Other changes at executive level among rival clubs have also seen sources insist that attitudes towards the City case are nowhere near as animated as they were a few years ago.

>Beyond that, the recently installed UK prime minister, Andy Burnham, was meanwhile mayor of Manchester over a nine-year period when the UAE made significant investments into the city. Burnham has praised the club owners as “huge partners” for Manchester. He also spoke to Bin Zayed within a week of assuming office in July.

>While it should be stressed that none of this bears any influence on an independent process, such layers have generally led to a wider feeling that such power wins out; that legal might tells.

>It is just one other reason that the anticipated Premier League outcome is so seismic. One reason that football figures have been so stunned by the number of charges the competition has won on is because no one expected a club that can deploy state resources to be beaten so thoroughly.

>That only makes it all the more notable - and, to some sources, surprising - that a political figure as experienced as Al Mubarak remains so bullish.