Thunder vs. Spurs odds, prediction, time: 2026 NBA Opening Night picks by proven model

The 2026-27 NBA season begins with a tripleheader on Tuesday, with a rematch of last year's West Finals the nightcap of NBA Opening Night. Victor Wembanyama and San Antonio prevailed in the seven-game series last season and are coming off a 62-20 season that ended with a five-game defeat to the Knicks in the NBA Finals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and OKC came up short in their efforts to defend their 2025 title, but the Thunder had the best record in the association last year at 64-18. Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 trading bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:

>Tipoff is at 9:30 p.m. ET from Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. The Spurs won four of five regular-season matchups a year ago. San Antonio is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Thunder vs. Spurs odds, while the over/under is 230.5. Before making any Spurs vs. Thunder picks, check out the Thunder vs. Spurs predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

>The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned nearly $19,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks since 2018, including five straight seasons of four-digit profit. The model enters the 2026-27 season off yet another huge season, including going 26-10 (72%) on top-rated spread picks at NBA betting sites. Anyone following on betting sites could have seen huge returns.

>Now, the model has simulated Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Thunder vs. Spurs:

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>After 10,000 simulations of Spurs vs. Thunder, SportsLine's model is going Under on the total (231.5) at the best betting apps. These were the two best defensive teams in the league last year, with OKC topping the NBA in defensive rating and San Antonio ranking second. Their seven-game series in the 2026 Western Conference Finals averaged 221.7 points per game, and their last two matchups in San Antonio both went under.

>The Under connected in 62% of games in which the Spurs were home favorites last season, which was the third-highest rate among Western Conference teams. As for OKC, it may due for both some regression on the offensive end and require an adjustment period after losing three key wings in Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe. They combined to average nearly 30 points a game as the model's 10,000 sims project 219 total points, with the Under hitting 69% of the time. See the Thunder vs. Spurs spread pick at SportsLine.

>After simulating each possession of Thunder vs. Spurs 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's NBA picks.

>So who wins Spurs vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thunder vs. Spurs line to back, all from the model that has returned nearly $19,000 on top-rated NBA picks since 2018, and find out.