TST Best Bets: July 23, 2026

San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) plays second base during an MLB game between the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres, Sunday April 12, 2026 at Petco Park in San Diego, Calif.The San Diego Padres conclude their four-game series today against the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta currently leads the series, 2-1, after beating San Diego 7-6 Wednesday night.

>Since their eight-game losing streak that spanned from June 27 to July 4, the Padres have middled out. They are now 50-52 and third in the NL West.

>San Diego’s offense ranks 25th in runs per game (4.11) and 28th in total bases per game (12.54). They are also 19th in run differential (-28).

>However, the Padres offense will enter today’s game having scored five runs in the ninth in a thriller last night. Fernando Tatis Jr. picked up a 2-RBI triple and Luis Rengifo drilled a 2-run homer in the comeback effort.

>Griffin Canning is projected to take the mound for the Padres against the Braves in the finale. Canning has a 6.67 ERA through 59.1 innings pitched. In his past five outings, he’s given up 13 runs in 17.1 innings to the tune of a 6.75 ERA – allowing 23 hits.

>The Atlanta Braves lead the NL East with a 59-42 record, ranking third in the National League.

>Chris Sale is projected to pitch for the Braves. Sale’s 2.06 ERA marks a career-best, topping his 2024 Cy Young-winning season where he tossed a 2.38 ERA. Sale is 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in six games against the Padres.

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>First Pick: San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves - Over 8 total runs

>Rundown: Griffin Canning historically has struggled heavily against the Atlanta Braves. In 7.2 innings, he has given up 11 runs on 13 hits. In his most recent outing against the Braves, he gave up four runs in 0.2 innings of work. There is a real chance the Braves start out hot against the Padres and jump on Canning.

>Matt Olson leads the Braves’ offense in home runs (26) and RBIs (70). Olson so far has two home runs against Canning. Michael Harris II leads the Braves with a .296 batting average and is 4-for-5 in his career against Canning.

>One point of concern is that Sale will limit the Padres’ production at the plate. If the Padres struggle to score, it could be trouble hitting the 8+ runs mark. However, in four of their last six games the total runs scored have eclipsed 10.

>Second Pick: Atlanta Braves +1.5 over San Diego Padres

>Rundown: Pitching is the name of the game.

>The Sale-Canning matchup is very lopsided in favor of the Braves. Sale has a 1.80 ERA against the Padres in his career – and he’s currently in a career-best season. Canning recently has struggled with an ERA over six.

>Plus, the Braves have already taken two games in this series.