Way-too-early Big 12 basketball tiers: Arizona, Houston and Kansas headline wide-open league after mass exits

It was a weird offseason in Big 12 country as a ton of top-level, proven talent chose to leave the conference via the transfer portal.

>Eight of the Big 12's top-30 scorers transferred to another rival high-major league, headlined by Kansas' Flory Bidunga signing a monster deal with Louisville, Iowa State's Milan Momcilovic choosing desperate Kentucky, Baylor's Tounde Yessoufou heading to St. John's and Texas poaching TCU's David Punch and Colorado's Isaiah Johnson.

>Proven production in the Big 12 is a bit harder to find in 2026-27, and while the league is lacking foolproof rosters at the top of the pecking order, it's clear as day that the depth of the league will be there, especially after Cincinnati and Arizona State made significant coaching hires.

>Conference tiers provide a preferable way to contextualize each roster's outlook.

>2025-26 record: 36-3 overall, 16-2 in Big 12 play

>Postseason: No. 1 seed. Lost in the Final Four.

>Top bench options: G JJ Mandaquit, F Maksim Brnovic, F Mabil Mawut, F Ugnius Jarusevicius, C Evan Otten, F Endurance Aiyamenkhue, G Bryce James

>The scoop: It's hard to see how Arizona is not an excellent defensive team. Five-star freshman Caleb Holt, sophomore wing Ivan Kharchenkov and 7-foot-2 mountain Motiejus Krivas are all elite defenders for their respective positions, and Arizona will have excellent positional size when 6-foot-4 point guard Derek Dixon and 6-foot-6 wing Cameron Holmes join that trio.

>Arizona is not quite as physical or physically imposing as last year's club, but a lot of those same tenets of rebounding and rim protection, fueling a hellacious transition attack, can stay intact. Washington transfer point guard JJ Mandaquit will make sure Arizona continues to play at a breakneck pace, and he'll force-feed the big dawgs at all times.

>Your bigs control your floor, which means Arizona's floor is extremely high with Krivas in the fold. There's a chance he is the Big 12 Player of the Year since he won't have to share the sugar with Koa Peat and Tobe Awaka. I like the depth options, too. Keep a close eye on Nebraska transfer Ugnius Jarusevicius. If he can buck a nasty back injury, he can help this club with physical low-post, duck-ins.

>Arizona could be a bit more wobbly some nights without the steady Jaden Bradley, but Lloyd should be able to get plenty out of these young guards. Mandaquit is too high-feel to fail under this coaching staff. Dixon is the same way. Too smart and too good a shooter to fail. Toss in Holt into that mix, too. Too big, too strong, too physical to fail.

>2025-26 record: 30-7 overall, 14-4 in Big 12 play

>Postseason: No. 2 seed; lost in the Sweet 16

>Top bench options: G Corey Hadnot II, G Ikenna Alozie, F Braden East, C Arafan Diane, G Kordel Jefferson, G Bryce Jackson

>The scoop: Normal programs are supposed to take a significant step back when they lose two starters from a Final Four team (Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan) and two first-round picks in Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac.

>For such a new-look group, Houston has a wildly high floor. LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. was hand-picked by Kelvin Sampson to continue the lineage of dynamic UH point guards. Thomas, armed with a dazzling career 2.6-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, is a snug fit. Thomas' sky-high feel in pick-and-rolls should make life easier for Houston's collection of unproven, off-ball guards like Mercy Miller, Chase McCarty, Corey Hadnot II and Ikenna Alozie. They'll get easier shots because Thomas is on the floor, and Miller has the talent to be a dynamic scoring threat. Thomas also plays so clean, which is everything for this Houston attack that covets offensive rebounding. With big man JoJo Tugler returning and Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie entering the fold, Houston is poised to rack up so many second-chance points. This Houston frontcourt could be so deep. Tugler is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Gillespie is a voracious rebounder with a bit of a funky offensive game, but he makes just enough jumpers from the midrange or downtown to keep defenses honest. Mammoth freshman big man Arafan Diane isn't expected to play major minutes in Year 1, but you'll feel the big fella when he's out there. Lamar transfer Braden East was one of the best offensive rebounders from the mid-major ranks. He is a perfect fourth fiddle in this Houston frontcourt rotation.

>Truth be told, Houston's incubator of player development has to pop yet again for the Coogs to be National Championship-level good. I'm not sure there's quite enough NBA talent to get there, but will you be that surprised if Houston is up 65-62 on top-seeded Duke in the Sweet 16 with 3:52 left?

>2025-26 record: 24-11 overall, 12-6 in Big 12 play

>Postseason: No. 4 seed; lost in the Round of 32

>Top bench options: G Kohl Rosario, C Paul Mbiya, G Dennis Parker Jr., F Davion Adkins, G Trent Perry, G Luke Barnett

>The scoop: Kansas finished with a +3 rebounding differential last season in 28 games against Quad 1 or Quad 2 competition, per CBB Analytics. That ranked just eighth in the Big 12 and lowered KU's floor dramatically.

>Big guys who don't play that big shouldn't be a problem this year with this personnel. 7-foot-2 Charleston transfer Christian Reeves was the best per-minute rebounder in the CAA last year. 6-foot-9 Utah transfer Keanu Dawes was the second-best per-minute rebounder in Big 12 play. Top-rated recruit Tyran Stokes was one of the best rebounders in all of high school basketball.

>Reeves has to get his shoulder healthy, but Kansas' new-look front-line should be vacuum cleaners on the boards. When you rebound, you can compete in every game.

>The mercurial Stokes will be a hot-button topic, but I'm not too concerned about his on-court impact. A 6-foot-7 burly forward who passes, dribbles, shoots, slashes, rebounds and defends will find ways to be very impactful even on nights when the jumper isn't going in. Stokes is going to be really good, but fellow five-star guard Taylen Kinney is the far bigger question mark. Objectively, Kinney had a rough showing for Team USA's U18 team this summer. Kinney's erratic decision-making — both with the shots he chooses to take and the passes he tries — has to get cleaned up, or there will be some low-lows in the well-schemed Big 12.

>There's a real shot that Kansas doesn't have a true point guard on the roster. Kinney's summer showing with Team USA reiterated that he is more of a scorer than a true set-the-table point guard, and Toledo transfer Leroy Blyden Jr. is better-suited as a secondary handler who can punish teams with his speed and shooting. The more you look at this Kansas roster, the more it's obvious that Stokes is going to have the ball in his hands as much as humanly possible. He's the trigger man for all of this.

>A Hall of Fame coach who has one of the best players in the country on his roster gives Kansas plenty of high-floor outcomes, but you can poke real holes in both KU's offense and defense. Without Flory Bidunga, Kansas' switchability defensively goes from a strength to a weakness. I expect a bunch more drop coverage with Reeves at the 5, but are these smaller guards going to have enough bite defensively to pull it off? How good can this offense be with all the creation questions at point guard and with bigs who aren't passers?

>Kansas is a good team, but it has some red flags in the profile that keep it off the national championship short list … for now.

>2025-26 record: 29-8 overall, 12-6 in Big 12 play

>Postseason: No. 2 seed; lost in the Sweet 16

>Top bench options: F Leon Bond III, G Ryan Prather Jr., F Taj Manning, F Dominykas Pleta

>The scoop: Iowa State doesn't have Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson or Tamin Lipsey anymore, but T.J. Otzelberger isn't in the excuse-making business. It's plain, boring analysis, but Iowa State just has a lot of good players on the roster and the defense will be the calling card.

>Sophomore guard Killyan Toure is a terrific point-of-attack defender, and big man Blake Buchanan is a stud defender in his own right. Otzelberger smartly surrounded those two lynchpins with a ton of plus rangy off-ball defenders, headlined by Northern Iowa transfer Leon Bond III and Northwestern transfer Tre Singleton. Oh, and Bradley transfer Jaquan Johnson is an ideal Lipsey replacement. Johnson shot just 50% at the rim last year, but the 5-foot-11 bullyball guard adds another takeaway machine to this defense who can also drain 3s, get to the free throw line, hit pull-ups and create for others without turning it over much.

>Iowa State has had four top-10 defenses under Otzelberger's watch, and this personnel looks poised to do that again. Johnson and Toure can take tough assignments on lead guards. Singleton and Buchanan are physical up front. Bond will check in to clamp any good wing. Taj Manning and Dominykas Pleta give Iowa State plenty of rock-solid frontcourt depth. The speed and length should coalesce into another defense that takes the ball away at a high clip.

>But this offense hinges mightily on Jamarion Batemon and Singleton. Iowa State will miss Jefferson's creation and Momcilovic's automatic jumper, but Batemon showed flashes of brilliance offensively as a shooter and Singleton's got some Jefferson vibes as a big forward who can pass, dribble and maybe shoot.

>A top-10 defense plus a top-40 offense? That sounds realistic for this personnel and would put Iowa State in the mix for a No. 4 or No. 5 seed.

>2025-26 record: 21-14 overall, 9-9 in Big 12 play

>Top bench options: G Martin Somerville, G Amir Jenkins, F Aliou Dioum, G Keonte Greybear, C Amadou Seini, F Javan Buchanan (if eligible, needs a waiver)

>The scoop: Speed. That's the first thing you notice about this new-look West Virginia roster. Butler transfer Finley Bizjack and top-20 freshman Miles Sadler can both hit the gas and leave defenders in the dust. Sadler has the opportunity and the talent to be a real Big 12 Freshman of the Year contender, and West Virginia is primed to give him the ball and let him shred from Day One.

>There's room for this offense to be a tough cover with Sadler and Bizjack playing on the ball, Joson Sanon adding shot-making, big man Mo Sylla operating as a lob threat and FSU transfer Martin Somerville checking in off the bench to bring instant offense and plenty of triples. Sylla also has terrific defensive tools and could be a match made in heaven under outstanding defensive coach, Ross Hodge. West Virginia's defense won't allow much at the rim with the no-middle gameplan and Sylla looming on the back line as a shot-blocker.

>Javan Buchanan's case for a waiver could make or break West Virginia's chances to truly compete in this league. Buchanan is trying to get another year of eligibility after starting his college tenure at the NAIA ranks. The 6-foot-7, 4-man is the perfect blend piece for this roster who can be a settling two-way connector, but if he can't play, WVU's frontcourt picture gets a little shaky and thin behind Sylla.

>2025-26 record: 23-12 overall, 9-9 in Big 12 play

>Postseason: No. 6 seed; lost in the Round of 64

>Top bench options: F Tyler Betsey, G Dawson Baker, F Dean Ruckert, G Brooks Bahr, F Brody Kozlowski, C Will Openshaw, F Adam Stewart

>The scoop: After a flirtation with Kentucky in the portal, Rob Wright III returned to Provo, and he's about to put up ludicrous numbers under a coaching staff that isn't afraid to heavily concentrate the offense onto its star. BYU has added so much shooting this offseason to spread the floor for Wright. Kentucky transfer Collin Chandler is a 41% 3-point shooter on volume. Syracuse transfer Tyler Betsey drilled 40% of his treys last season. Clemson transfer forward Jake Wahlin will be more on the floor for his defense, but he is a capable 34% 3-point shooter. Five-star freshman wing Bruce Branch III shot nearly 40% from beyond the arc on the circuit.

>Wright rated in the 78th percentile in pick-and-roll efficiency and was one of the top drivers in all of college basketball last year. With this spacing, he's primed to erupt. I'd be stunned if he's not in the Big 12 Player of the Year race.

>BYU's offense is going to have to smash because the defense is a major question mark. Young has missed on some of his top targets on the absurd big-man market. BYU is still doing some work on that front, but at this point, get ready for a heavy dose of Khadim Mboup at the 5. The 6-foot-9 forward is a bit undersized, but watching lots of Flory Bidunga tape could be illuminating. Mboup has ridiculous motor, length and athleticism. If he can take another stride with his decision-making on offense and defense, Mboup can be a real-deal, switch-everything defender. BYU will be undersized with Mboup at the 5, but it's not going to be a disaster, either.

>If BYU can add just another rotation big man late in the cycle, it will be in the mix.

>2025-26 record: 17-17 overall, 6-12 in Big 12 play

>Postseason: Lost in the second round of The Crown.

>Top bench options: G Isaac Williams, G Brett Decker Jr., F Evan. Chatman, F Maikcol Perez, F Andre Igoudala II, F Mayo Soyoye

>The scoop: Baylor's lack of a true point guard last year was jarring, but that won't be the case in 2026-27. Scott Drew landed Penn State transfer Kayden Mingo, who was one of the top paint-touch point guards in the portal. Mingo is always in attack mode, and he can defend, rebound, create and pressure the rim. Mingo shot 63% at the rim on a whopping 151 attempts, even though most defenders were not scared of his jumper.

>One Mingo brother was not enough. Baylor also reeled in five-star recruit Dylan Mingo, who was once UNC-bound before Hubert Davis was fired in favor of Michael Malone. Dylan Mingo has to get healthy, but when he's right, the jumbo guard can also attack the rim and create advantages left and right.

>The Mingo brothers will make this Baylor ship sail, but the Bears did stockpile some needed role players to round out the rotation. Returning junior guard Isaac Williams is Steady Eddie and can play on or off the ball. Top-30 freshman Elijah Williams has a chance to be a two-way difference-maker from Day One. Liberty transfer Brett Decker Jr. is one of the top snipers in the portal (47% from downtown on 7.1 attempts), which was key because both Mingo brothers struggle to consistently drain jumpers. 6-foot-6 Yale transfer Isaac Celiscar is another excellent role-player bet with his mix of size, secondary creation, spot-up shooting and cutting.

>All of that is fine and cool, but nothing matters if Baylor's centers don't show up. No bigs? No shot. High Point transfer Juslin Bodo Bodo has to be a difference-maker if Baylor wants to compete. If the 7-footer can be that interior enforcer, Baylor's got a chance to get back to the Big Dance, but the frontcourt depth is very thin and Bodo Bodo missed all of last year with an arm injury. Baylor just can't be outside the top-60 defensively for the fourth year in a row, but Dylan Mingo and Bodo Bodo have to be fully healthy all year for that streak to get sent to the shadow realm.

>2025-26 record: 23-11 overall, 12-6 in Big 12 play

>Postseason: No. 5 seed, lost in the Round of 32.

>Top bench options: G Damarion Dennis, F Marial Akuentok, F LaTrell Hoover, F Treaton Hall, F JT Toppin (recovering from torn ACL)

>The scoop: JT Toppin's status looms over Texas Tech like a dark cloud. The gut-wrenching loss of the All-American forward has made life difficult this spring for Grant McCasland. When will Toppin return? And what can we do in roster-building when a hefty chunk of change is tied up in one of the best players in the country, who just tore his ACL in late February and could miss most if not all of next season?

>On the bright side, the backcourt will get buckets. Hofstra transfer point guard Cruz Davis is a smooth operator. I think he will get a cup of coffee in the NBA one day, and he's one heckuva Christian Anderson replacement. UNLV transfer Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn and 6-foot-5 freshman DaKari Spear can both score, and Wyoming transfer guard Damarion Dennis should blend into this mix nicely as a fill-the-gaps role player.

>Texas Tech is in the market for an international big man (top target Momo Faye is finishing up his professional season in France this week); if that development comes through, Texas Tech will be competitive while it waits for Toppin to heal up.

>If we fast-forward to March and the starting lineup is Davis, Gibbs-Lawhorn, Spear, Toppin and Faye, Texas Tech has shot-makers in the backcourt and a physical, dominant frontcourt that can play with anybody. Right now, though, this roster is thin and vastly unproven in the frontcourt.

>There are a lot of "ifs" at this point with Toppin's recovery and the NCAA cracking down heavily on international recruiting.

>2025-26 record: 20-15 overall, 6-12 in Big 12 play

>Postseason: Lost in the second round of the NIT.

>Top bench options: G Anthony Felesi, G Jacob Walker, F Andrija Grbovic, F Benjamin Ahmed, G Ryan Crotty, C Mekhi Ragland, F Jalen Montonati, G Parker Robinson, G Kashie Natt (needs a waiver)

>The scoop: What an offseason for Steve Lutz. This Oklahoma State roster has made an about-face and enters 2026-27 with loads of playable depth after it found usable pieces in every area of roster-building.

>Oklahoma State retained two key building blocks in point guard Kanye Clary and enormous big man Benjamin Ahmed. It landed two top-35 freshmen in forward Latrell Allmond (beast on the boards) and Anthony Felesi (excellent wing defender). And boy, the Pokes did work in the portal, reeling in some shooting with UNC's Luka Bogavac and UCF's Jordan Burks, some high-major size in Georgetown transfer Julius Halaifonua and Arizona State transfer Andrija Grbovic and a dynamic backup point guard in Sam Houston State's Jacob Walker. We didn't even mention destructive defender Kashie Natt, who needs a waiver to play after spending time at the NAIA ranks, but would be a no-doubt rotation player.

>This is a tournament team that could sniff the top-25 with the right breaks.

>2025-26 record: 18-15 overall, 9-9 in Big 12 play

>Top bench options: G Akai Fleming, G Trevian Carson, G Elijah Perryman, C Riley Allenspach, F Eric Mahaffey

>The scoop: New Cincinnati coach Jerrod Calhoun has two of everything on his first Bearcats' roster. Two point guards in Tylen Riley and Elijah Perryman. Two centers in defensive menace Jayden Hastings and skilled offense-first big man Riley Allenspach. Two scoring guards in Myles Colvin and Akai Fleming. Two of the best role-player bets from the mid-major ranks in Akron transfer Eric Mahaffey and North Dakota State transfer guard Trevian Carson. Two long wings in Tyler Tejada and the toolsy Adlan Elamin, who followed Calhoun from Utah State and some scouts believe could play in the NBA one day.

>Everyone wants playable depth, but few coaches weaponize a 10-man rotation as well as Calhoun. Cincinnati should be able to toggle its lineups to go big or small with Riley humming as the veteran floor general who makes life easier for whoever else is on the floor. This personnel screams Calhoun-style basketball, featuring a ton of cutting, slashing with capable, unselfish decision-makers at almost every spot.

>That should be enough to make the Bearcats a tough out in this league, although it's fair to wonder if this roster doesn't have quite enough physicality to fully contend with the big dawgs.

>2025-26 record: 17-16 overall, 7-11 in Big 12 play

>Top bench options: F Jonathan Griman, F Marcus Vaughns, G JRob Croy, C Nathaniel Garcia, C Filip Malesevic, G Vijay Wallace, Bryce Ford

>The scoop: Arizona State being able to scoop Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett is one of the biggest coups of the offseason. Bennett has made the Big Dance and outperformed his preseason KenPom projection in each of the past five seasons.

>The Big 12, though, is a different beast. To keep Bennett's terrific streak alive, Arizona State is going to need its big dawgs to play like big dawgs. The Sun Devils have built one of the largest teams in the league. Emmanuel Innocenti and Dillan Shaw are two rangy defense-first wings who can lock up the top two perimeter players on the scouting report. That should allow diminutive Portland transfer point guard Joel Foxwell to meander into the shadows defensively, while providing expert feel and creation in pick-and-rolls.

>But we've buried the lede. The star of the show is bruising forward Paulius Murauskas. The chiseled 6-foot-8 thumper can pass, dribble, shoot and plays with so much force. He followed Bennett from Saint Mary's to Arizona State and could be an All-Big 12 player in 2026-27. Bennett has four (!) skyscrapers 6-foot-11 or taller who can sop up minutes at the 5-spot.

>Size, physicality, defense and good point guard play should vault Arizona State back to the NCAA Tournament mix.

>2025-26 record: 23-12 overall, 11-7 in Big 12 play