World Cup round of 16 gets serious: Brazil vs. Norway in heavyweight showdown; England face Mexico at Azteca

Headlong through the last 16 of the World Cup we rush, at last safely ensconced in a world of two big games a day. I don't know about you, but I feel like the sensory overload has eased up somewhat. The round of 32 was candy store football, thrilling and delicious treats everywhere you looked. Now we're into the grown-up stuff.

>Sunday's slate starts with a rerun of one of the most memorable games from France 98, Norway intent on extending their unbeaten run against Brazil to five games. After that, it's the big one, a match that already promises to be historic even before a ball is kicked. Mexico vs. England in the Azteca, that'll be a doozy. Let's dive straight into what I'm watching out for, shall we?

>If ever there was a game at the World Cup to move to Las Vegas, it was Brazil vs. Norway. Or more accurately, the heavyweight showdown Gabriel Magalhaes vs. Erling Haaland. I'm told that there will be anywhere up to 20 other footballers on the field for this one, but they really belong on the undercard. Arsenal's king of Brazil versus the marauding, scoring cyborg from Manchester City is the main event.

>It is rare that one of their tussles does not deliver high drama. Though there had been burbling enmity between Gabriel and Haaland in earlier meetings, the rivalry burst to the surface in 2024, when John Stones scrambled in an equaliser for City, whose No.9 felt compelled to celebrate by lobbing the ball off the back of Gabriel's bonce. It was Haaland though, whose head had gone to the moon. A last-gasp chance to get a winner was wasted when he went charging at the Arsenal backline straight after kick-off as if he were a defensive lineman on pass rush duty.

>Haaland went off the pitch warning Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta to "be humble." Arsenal got the last laugh next time out, the Emirates Stadium blaring to the sound of Kendrick Lamar's 'Humble' as they celebrated a 5-1 victory over City. Gabriel had already got his point across, letting out a cry of delight when Martin Odegaard opened the scoring early on.

>This all sounds like profound dislike and perhaps for a time it was. That doesn't make for the best rivalries. You can't build a narrative on that. These two might hate each other, but dammit, they respect each other too. There might be a touch of the Ivan Dragos to Haaland, but let's be clear, the Drago of 2026 is feigning all sorts of injuries if he gets a head grazing in the final minutes of a title showdown. Haaland and Gabriel, that's Apollo Creed and Rocky Balboa (assign whichever character to whichever footballer based on your personal preference).

>And so when Gabriel lost his cool and turned some forehead rutting into a butt at the Etihad back in April, the day when it seemed Arsenal had blown the title race, Haaland stood his ground. "It's always like this, a lot of fighting and these kinds of things," Haaland said afterwards. "What can I say? It's always nice... Maybe, yes, I should have gone down, maybe it would be easier, but I didn't."

>Then again, back then Haaland thought he was picking a broken opponent off the mat after the referee had already counted him out. Little did he know that Arsenal still had a haymaker in them, that with Gabriel avoiding suspension they could win out down the stretch. That good deed having gone thoroughly punished, you suspect Haaland will not be in such a hospitable mood when they square off today.

>Should he start in the Estadio Azteca, Jordan Pickford will make history, matching the record of 17 games for England at the World Cup which is held by one of his predecessors between the sticks, Peter Shilton. And of course any mention of the Azteca and Shilton unleashes a chain reaction of mental anguish for England supporters, who, whether they were alive or not, must relive the Hand of God moment as vividly as if it were yesterday. It is of course one of the most memorable acts of cheating in the history of sport, but it is also an almighty flub from the goalkeeper. Shilton had seven inches on Diego Maradona when they both went up to punch the ball. Even accounting for shock factor, England's No.1 should have got there first.

>That goalkeeping disaster feels worryingly relevant for Pickford at the Azteca given how trying this summer has been for him so far. The standout low point was, of course, DR Congo's goal in the round of 32, the goalkeeper's mistake the last in a cavalcade of English errors as he allowed Brian Cipenga to drive low past him at his near post. More relevant, however, might be Croatia's first goal in the tournament opener, where Pickford got a good wedge of a glove on Martin Baturina's shot but could not tip it away from his net. That is something you tend not to see top goalkeepers do all that often.

>Or at least you didn't until this World Cup, a tournament where Pickford, Edouard Mendy and Luca Zidane are among those to have struggled with long-range efforts. Ex-goalkeepers working in the media such as Joe Hart speak of the issues that the tournament ball, the Trionda, is posing issues to goalkeepers.

>A study led by John Eric Goff at the University of Puget Sound in Tacoma, WA would suggest there might be something in that. Comparing the Trionda with every World Cup ball since 2010, they found that while the tournament ball generally flies more evenly at corners and free kicks than the infamous Jabulani of the 2010 World Cup, it has a "modestly larger" "turbulent-regime drag" than the other tested balls. Its range, however, may be somewhat shorter than past balls, potentially leading to it dipping in a fashion goalkeepers are not expecting. At specific speeds and with little or no spin, those changes could reach 20%. In short, a goalkeeper might dive in the expectation of the ball ending up in one spot, but the relatively reduced range of the Trionda could have them putting their hand in the wrong spot.

>All of that happens before the variable of altitude enters the equation. Thomas Tuchel specifically mentioned the flight of the ball as one of the challenges England must adapt to, in the thinner air 7,352 feet above sea level, the ball is going to move faster given that there is less air resistance. So far, Mexico have not been inclined to test goalkeepers from range any more than average and are yet to score a goal from outside the box. However, they do seem to benefit when they have a go from range. In 74 home matches for which CBS Sports has access to shot data -- friendlies, Gold Cup, Nations League and World Cup qualifiers -- Mexico have taken 505 shots from outside the box worth a combined 17.4 expected goals. They have scored 23 times.

>Pickford, however, does profile as a solid shot stopper from range in particular. Over the past six Premier League seasons, he saves an above-average 85.4% of shots taken outside his box. He is a very good shot stopper in the box too. In that same time period no one has prevented more goals than Pickford's 18.4, a statistic that compares the post-shot expected goal value of a shot to the actual volume of goals conceded.

>The England No.1 does have a tendency for the over the top, but that has saved his country far more often than it has created problems for them. Given how strong his last season with Everton was, the most obvious conclusion to be drawn from his World Cup form is that this is just a slight wobble. At the Azteca, he will simply have to hope that neither he nor the ball is doing all that much of that.