2026 NBA Finals betting: Model says Knicks still offer significant value in futures best bets

The coming-of-age San Antonio Spurs versus the historically hot New York Knicks. The intimidating length of the sports world's newest megastar, the 7-foot-4 Victor Wembanyama, against the dizzying mid-range mastery of the 6-foot-2 Jalen Brunson. A franchise built to win multiple NBA titles over the next decade versus one looking to win now.

>The 2026 NBA Finals between the Spurs and Knicks is shaping up to be a riveting clash when the best-of-seven series tips off on Wednesday at the Frost Bank Center. San Antonio, which is loaded with young players and future assets, can begin what could be a long reign atop the NBA. Meanwhile, New York is famously trying to end a 52-season drought since the franchise's last NBA title in 1973.

>The Spurs are -198 favorites at FanDuel to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy while the Knicks are +166 underdogs. Accordingly, Wembanyama is a -180 favorite to win Finals MVP, with Brunson the +210 second choice.

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>But the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and enters the 2026 NBA Finals on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread betting picks this season, is not siding with the favorites in the finals. Instead, the model is riding with the team it has loved all postseason.

>Before the playoffs, the SportsLine Projection Model saw value in New York winning the NBA title at +2500. Before the Eastern Conference semifinals, the model again was high on the Knicks lifting the trophy at +900. And before the Eastern Conference finals, the model was all-in on Brunson and friends to get a parade through the Canyon of Heroes at +550.

>Now that New York is in the Finals, the model is sticking with the Knicks. And why not? They're on an all-time heater. They enter the series having won 11 straight games and are one of just five teams in league history to win 11 in a row in a single postseason. Moreover, their +262 point differential over those 11 games is the largest point differential over any 11-game span by any team in NBA history.

>The model gives New York a 45.2% chance of beating San Antonio, which is greater than the implied odds of 35.8%.

>There is one caveat, however. The 45.2% number is dependent on Knicks big man Mitchell Robinson, who is expected to play in Game 1 with a cast on his right hand to protect a broken pinkie finger, being at least 70% healthy and able to play at least 15 minutes per game. If he cannot play at all, the model gives New York just a 36.1% chance to beat the Spurs, which is essentially a wash with the current implied odds.

>As far as the exact result of the series, the model says the most likely outcome is Spurs in seven games, which occurs in 18.3% of simulations. The second most likely in Knicks in six, which occurs 16.7% of the time. However, neither San Antonio in seven (+310) nor New York in six (+500) offers value at those prices.

>The only prop play on the series that the model sees value in is Knicks in five (+1200). The model gives that result a 10.5% chance, which is greater than the implied odds of 7.7%.