Free MLB home run odds, picks for July 16: Expert delivers best Thursday HR player props for Mets vs. Phillies

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are the first two teams to kick off the second half of the 2026 MLB season with the All-Star break officially in the rearview mirror. These NL East rivals are the only two teams set to take the field on Thursday, so bettors only have one baseball option before a full slate of games on Friday. With just the one game, prop betting options, such as home run props, are limited, but SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has provided his picks for Thursday's game.

>Thompson was one of the earliest SportsLine experts from 2016-19 and rejoined the company in 2026 following a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in the NFL, MLB and the NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he's up over 70 units in MLB and more than 60 units in the NBA at sports betting apps.

>Here's Thompson's home run picks for Thursday, July 16.

>Christian Scott faced the Phillies on June 27, limiting them to two runs over 4 1/3 innings in a 6-2 New York win. He did give up one home run, and it was to Harper, a player who likely feels like he needs to redeem himself after Monday's early Home Run Derby elimination.

>Harper is having a power surge at the age of 33. He's hit 20 home runs through 97 games and is well on pace for 35 or so, what he used to get in his mid-20's prime years. Harper has hit exactly 10 home runs each on the road and at home, but his OPS at Citizens Bank Park of .924 is over 100 points above his road split. You know Kyle Schwarber ribbed him about the first-round Derby elimination. Harper's answer could come tonight against Scott or a Mets bullpen that's given up a league-high 13 home runs in July.

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>It's been a tough season for Phillies right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola. He's 3-6 with a 5.75 ERA in 19 starts, posting a 6.11 ERA in his last seven and a 6.81 ERA in eight home starts. While he's allowed just one home run over his last two starts, the previous four he allowed two dingers in each of them. That includes a June 18 matchup with these Mets – both by Soto.

>Soto has five career home runs off Nola and a lifetime 1.142 OPS. The Phillies' bullpen this month owns an 8.05 ERA with eight home runs allowed. If the Mets are going to make a statement in the second half of the season, Soto is a prime candidate to make it.