Free MLB home run prop picks on Sept. 25: Orioles' Pete Alonso among expert's best bets for Friday

It should be a fun weekend in terms of which player wins the MLB home run crown, but I'll be happy either way because it will be either former Cub Kyle Schwarber or current Cubbies superstar and NL MVP lock Pete Crow-Armstrong as they are tied for the overall lead with 45 dingers apiece. I'd actually be fine with a tie. And both should play most of the weekend because their respective teams are playing for better NL wild card seeding. Not sure I see an advantage with both priced -110 to win it.

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>Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.

>Last Friday, my home run picks were the Diamondbacks' Nolan Arenado at +630 vs. the Yankees as well as the Braves' Mike Yastrzemski +630 against the Astros. Arenado didn't homer but had two hits so I cashed Over 1.5 total bases -- all my home run prop picks mean I like Over 1.5 total bases even better at the best sports betting apps. Yaz, meanwhile, was 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Bummer.

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>This three-game AL East series between Baltimore and New York from Yankee Stadium that begins tonight at 7:05 ET is meaningless in the grand scheme of things. The Bombers are locked into the AL's top wild card spot and the Orioles are eliminated and can't even finish with a winning record. So long story short, I won't be betting a side here. WT.

>I personally won't be touching any playoff-bound stars this weekend in terms of props because they might sit out or be pulled midway through a game to rest up and be as healthy as possible for the postseason, which starts Tuesday. And we've already been told by the Yankees that Aaron Judge will not be back from his latest injury for the Wild Card Series. That's a bummer. Although he claims he will play. We shall see.

>But certainly there are players out there who have individual goals they want to meet by Sunday either for personal reasons or a financial incentive via bonus. Pete Alonso was Baltimore's big-ticket free-agent addition, and Alonso struggled early on as many stars do when leaving a team for the first time in free agency. But Alonso has been raking for weeks and could win the AL home run title. He currently has 41 and is in a four-way tie for first.

>Alonso has become the first Orioles player since Anthony Santander in 2024 to get to 40 dingers, and Alonso already has easily cashed Over his spring total of 37.5. He was named the team MVP this week, the first unanimous Most Valuable Oriole since outfielder Cedric Mullins in 2021. While Alonso is a righty masher, he has a lot better numbers against right-handed pitchers and faces one tonight in New York's Will Warren (10-6, 4.02 ERA), who has given up 20 homers on the year. Alonso is 2-for-7 off him with two solo homers. I can't really recommend any other Orioles batters.

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>An NL East series between Atlanta and Miami starts at 7:05 ET from South Florida, and I'm guessing there will be plenty of good seats available on a beautiful Florida fall night with high school football going strong. No weather concerns as the retractable roof at loanDepot Park is usually closed. They all are usually closed.

>There is nothing at stake here, but the Braves are still including Drake Baldwin in the lineup. He's leading off and hitting DH They are the NL East champions and will host the last NL wild card team in that round next week. I hope that's Philadelphia just for rivalry purposes. About the only carrot for the Marlins is to finish at .500.

>If Miami can find some hitting in the offseason, it could be pretty decent in 2027 (if there is a season) because the Marlins have some good starting pitching led by fire-balling righty Eury Perez (7-11, 4.14 ERA), who goes tonight. Perez made his first career relief appearance on Tuesday at the Cubs in a 12-inning game but that will basically serve as his off-day bullpen session having thrown just one inning. Perez has surrendered 20 homers on the year.

>With Seattle's Cal Raleigh falling way off this year, you could argue that lefty-hitting Drake Baldwin of the Braves is the best all-around offensive catcher in MLB -- although he plays at DH plenty. Baldwin has 24 homers and a slugging percentage of .456. Baldwin's power has disappeared a bit in September with only two homers, but he's 4-for-9 off Perez with two homers.