Mike Vrabel says Patriots ‘learned how to win’ last year. But what does history tell us about Super Bowl losers’ next acts?

In the wake of the Patriots’ June 1 trade for receiver A.J. Brown, Mike Vrabel was asked about his new weapon’s cost.

>More specifically, Vrabel was asked on June 2 if he viewed the trade of a 2028 first-round pick for a three-time Pro Bowl receiver as a “win-now move” given the sacrifice of future assets. (The Patriots also sent the Philadelphia Eagles a 2027 fifth.)

>Vrabel zoomed out to answer the question.

>“We have to win,” he said. “That’s our job, to win. It’s a job and responsibility, and the expectation in the National Football League.

>“It’s not to go 4-13 two years in a row, if that’s what you mean.”

Mike Vrabel and the Patriots face a much tougher schedule this season. (Photo by John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)Boston Globe via Getty ImagesThe Patriots indeed finished 4-13 in the two seasons before Vrabel arrived. They advanced to the Super Bowl in his first year at the helm.

>Pending a dramatic swing in health, their trajectory does not suggest they’re headed back to the realm of four-win seasons this year.

>But the expectations surrounding them will also not sink back. So how likely is New England to disappoint?

>History suggests a repeat AFC title, or a Super Bowl win, are unlikely.

Mike Vrabel says contract talks with Patriots second-round rookie DE Gabe Jacas are "positive" and he's "cautiously optimistic."

"Spoken to Gabe personally and excited to get him in when he's under contract..." Vrabel said. "It'll get resolved. I'm positive that it will." pic.twitter.com/4hUccjQc3K

— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) July 24, 2026Only three teams in NFL history have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy after losing a Super Bowl the prior year: the 1971 Dallas Cowboys, 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2018 New England Patriots. Five more teams have returned to the Super Bowl the year after losing it only to lose it again: the 1974 Minnesota Vikings, the 1987 Denver Broncos and each Buffalo Bills team from 1991 through 1993.

>Failure to achieve the statistically unlikely task of winning the Super Bowl doesn’t suggest the Patriots, or Super Bowl losers generally, are going to flop the following year.

>Sixty-eight percent (40 of 59) of Super Bowl losers have advanced to the playoffs the next season in NFL history. But the odds have narrowed this millennium. Before 2000, 77% (27 of 35) of Super Bowl losers advanced to the next playoff. Since 2000, that rate has dropped to 54% (13 of 24).

>Vrabel believes his team will benefit from a year in which they “learned how to win.”

>And yet?

>“The journey that we’re getting ready to go on is not always going to be smooth sailing,” Vrabel said Friday. “I would love to say we're going to win 10 games in a row [like we did last year]. I don't know if that's going to happen, but there's going to be things on the field that we're going to have to deal with. There's going to be things off the field personally, professionally, and that's what we do.

>“We're going to start tomorrow by building and then teaching and then going out the next day and making sure that we get it fixed.”

Patriots think Drake Maye is ‘just scratching the surface’Key to the Patriots’ build will be third-year quarterback Drake Maye, who’s coming off a runner-up MVP season.

>Maye completed a league-best 72% of his passes last season for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He rushed for an additional 450 yards and four scores as the Patriots won 14 games.

>Maye’s playoff performances were shakier, the North Carolina product completing 58.3% of passes for 828 yards and six touchdowns to four interceptions. Maye also took 21 sacks in the postseason, the 14.89% sack rate nearly doubling his regular-season 8.72% clip.

>But the Patriots believe his regular-season performance will be the floor for what Maye does this season.

>“I don't think anyone is going to look at last year, at least in these walls, and think it was any sort of fluke,” general manager Eliot Wolf told Yahoo Sports in June. “At least the people that I've talked to are of the opinion that he's maybe kind of just scratching the surface. And I don't want to put that onus on him or put this undue pressure on him, but he's a young player that had a tremendous amount of success last year.

>“We expect, because of his work ethic and ability, that that'll continue.”

Mike Vrabel says CB Christian Gonzalez reported to camp.

"He is here & I would expect him to participate. Those contract negotiations are ongoing between the club & his agents. I’m excited about having Christian back here with us & the impact he can make on our football team." pic.twitter.com/fcNIPT9e2w

— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) July 24, 2026Helping Maye reach the next level will be entering the season with system familiarity. After switching offensive coordinators from his first to second season, Maye will again team up with Josh McDaniels this year.

>McDaniels described this offseason as a chance to get to a “more accelerated version” of the offense than the Patriots installed last year.

>Brown’s arrival allures, too.

>The Patriots view Brown as a powerful receiver with strong hands, the ability to adjust to balls and versatility getting open against both man and zone coverages.

>Veteran Stefon Diggs exceeded expectations last season with 1,013 yards and four touchdowns coming off a torn ACL he suffered at age 31. Brown has “some wear and tear” in a degenerating knee, Wolf confirmed to Yahoo Sports, but he’s younger and healthier than the receiver he’s succeeding.

>The Patriots also return the league’s fourth-best scoring defense.

>New England’s schedule, on the other hand, will almost certainly be stiffer than last year. Fourteen of New England’s 17 regular-season games came against teams that finished last year with a losing record. Eight fired their head coaches after the season, in addition to Mike Tomlin stepping down from his longtime Steelers post.

>This season, the Patriots open against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. Nine of their 17 games feature opponents who made the playoffs last year.

>Vrabel said Friday that the team’s pace and urgency will need to ramp up from the spring, even as his messaging looks similar to last year. Building a team requires similar building blocks, if different accoutrements, each year.

>

>Beginning with first- and second-down work Saturday, the Patriots will build.

>“We have to start over and figure out the things that we do well and what we like and what the players have confidence in,” Vrabel said. “And we have to be able to push the envelope on some things that we weren’t very good at last year and how we can improve and how we build. So that starts over each and every training camp …

>“Prepare for the journey and then be able to prepare to win.”