Statistical review of the Broncos struggles on third downs

The Denver Broncos are currently second to last in third down conversion rate at 31.1 percent. Only Washington is worse at 30.9 percent. The Broncos have converted on 28 of 90 3rd downs (not counting conversions by penalty on third down). By game here is how that went:

at KC – 2/12 • >JAC – 4/10 • >LAR – 7/13 • >at SF – 8/17 • >at LAC – 1/12 • >SEA – 4/14 • >at ARI – 3/11There were two good games and five bad ones. Over the last three games (all wins) the Broncos have converted eight of 37 – 22 percent. The league is converting on 40.6% on third down so far this year. The Bengals currently lead the league at 50.6 percent.

class="wp-block-paragraph">What makes this even worse is that the Broncos offense is only 14th in yards needed on 3rd down at 6.9. The 49ers are first at 5.3 and the Eagles are worst at 8.4.

class="wp-block-paragraph">The Broncos are tied for 16th at converting on 3rd and short (1-3 needed) at 61.5 percent. However they are tied for 31st at converting on 3rd and medium (4-6 needed) at 25.0. That is pathetic. Only the Falcons are worse at 21.7 percent. The Bills convert at 64.7 percent on 3rd and medium to lead the league.

The Broncos are tied for 31st at converting on 3rd and medium – at 25%. Only the Falcons have been worse. pic.twitter.com/vvK9VbnZAK

— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) October 28, 2026While that was bad, it gets worse. The Broncos are dead last at converting on 3rd and long. They have only 13 of 63 or 20.6 percent. Buffalo is converting those at 46.7 percent or better than twice the rate that Broncos are. The Broncos have actually had a conversion on 3rd and long in every game with the exception of the game against the Cardinals. Four of their thirteen came in the game against the 49ers. The only other games with more than one conversion on 3rd and long were the wins over the Rams and the Seahawks. Apparently the Broncos can only convert 3rd and longs against the NFC West, with the exception of the Cardinals.

class="wp-block-paragraph">Here is a look at conversion on 3rd and long by the Bronco offense of the last six seasons:

2026 (7 games) – 20.6 % • >2025 – 35.8% • >2024 – 30.4% • >2023 – 28.6% • >2022 – 22.3% • >2021 – 28.1% • >2020 – 31.7%This is the worst 3rd and long performance by the Bronco offense this decade although 2022 was close.

class="wp-block-paragraph">On the other side of the ball the Bronco defense is currently is tied for 21st allowing 3rd down conversions at 42.1 percent. The Bears defense has been the best so far at 26.1 percent while the Cowboys defense has been the worst at 52.9 percent. The Bronco defense finished second last season in 3rd down conversions allowed at 33.8 percent. The Seahawk defense led the league last year at 32.1%.

class="wp-block-paragraph">The Bronco defense has moved into a five-way tie for the league lead in sacks with 21, but three of those teams have only played 6 games (Bengals, Lions, and Vikings). The Broncos still have a shot at leading the NFL in sacks for a third straight season. No team has ever done that.

class="wp-block-paragraph">The Broncos are currently seventh in QB pressure rate at 25.2 percent. The Vikings are leading the league at 35.7 percent while the Giants and Colts are tied for last at 17.7 percent.

class="wp-block-paragraph">In terms of protecting Bo Nix, the Bronco OL has allowed pressure on 22.3% of dropbacks which is tied for 17th with the Cardinals. The Broncos are 4th in sacks allowed at 9. Three teams have only allowed 7 sacks so far this season, and one of them is the Bronco’s next opponent, Kansas City. The Browns have allowed the most sacks at 25.