How Kyle Larson Could Secure NASCAR Cup Championship at Martinsville

Kyle Larson has the opportunity of doing something that has never been done in the NASCAR Chase era this Sunday at Martinsville. With a 73-point lead over Denny Hamlin for the championship with two races to go, Larson could lock up the title battle one race early.

>The Cup Series circuit has two races left in the 2026 season: Martinsville and Homestead. However, Homestead could end up being a non-championship battle race if Larson is able to secure the championship at Martinsville.

>“Yung Money” could very well do that in the Xfinity 500.

Scenario For Kyle Larson to Win The Championship at MartinsvilleWith a 73-point advantage over second place, Kyle Larson only needs to score 59 points in Sunday’s Xfinity 500 to secure the championship, regardless of what any other driver does. With stage points factored in, there are a number of scenarios where Larson can clinch the title.

>NASCAR awards 55 points for the driver who wins a Cup Series race. Therefore, if Larson is able to win the Xfinity 500, he would only need to have an additional four stage points across the two stages to clinch the championship.

>In stages, 10 points are awarded to first place, nine to second place, and so on, with 10th place being the last position to earn one stage point. If Larson wins the race and places seventh or better in one stage, or ninth or better in two stages, he will clinch the championship.

>These scenarios factor in that if Larson earns 59 points, no other driver can prevent him from clinching the title. Yet, Larson does not necessarily need to total 59 points to leave at Martinsville as the champion.

>If Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and the other championship drivers have difficult days at Martinsville, all Larson would need to do is leaving with a 76-point advantage. Therefore, Larson would have to outpoint Hamlin by three points to clinch the championship.

Kyle Larson Enters Martinsville With High Likelihood of Winning Championship Even if Kyle Larson fails to clinch the championship this Sunday at Martinsville, the two-time and defending Cup champion is still likely of hoisting the Cup Series title trophy next Sunday at Homestead.

>In a press release by NASCAR, Larson has an astounding 92.3 percent chance of winning the 2026 championship. Entering Talladega, Larson was only five points ahead of second place Christopher Bell. With a 71-point day at Talladega, Larson gained 68 points on his advantage and holds the largest points gap of the Chase this season.

I think NASCAR is trying to tell us the math is mathing for the Hendrick 5 pic.twitter.com/wtNkXyIONJ

— Matt Weaver (@MattWeaverRA) October 28, 2026Wrapping up the championship at Martinsville, however, would be an incredible feat. Larson would become the first driver in the Chase era to clinch the championship a week before the final race.

>He would be the first driver since Matt Kenseth in 2003, the last year of the old Winston Cup points format, to secure the title in the next-to-last race.