Fantasy Football: WR drop trends and how lack of year-to-year correlation can help identify bounce-back points

NFL players get tormented online for drops more than anything else. But in fantasy football, it can be used to find some likely bounce-back points by the lack of correlation year-to-year. Analyst Joel Smyth goes over five players who should get some points back due to hanging on to the ball a little more often.

>Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season

>When analyzing fantasy points per game from year-to-year, using total drops as an indicator for future outputs has been found to be useless. The correlation between how often a player dropped the ball in one season can't be accurately used to predict the future. Sure, if a player gets 10 targets and drops five, they most likely won't see the field much. However, for relevant fantasy assets that are consistent targets for their QB, drops come and go.

>So when one player, usually uncharacteristically, has a lot of drops in one season, the following season could come with more production when drops shrink in certain areas.

Top-5 WRs in DropsPlayer

Drops

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

13

Jameson Williams, Lions

12

Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers

11

Jordan Addison, Vikings

10

Zay Flowers, Ravens

10

Jameson Williams & Amon-Ra St. BrownTake the Lions’ receivers for example. Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown had two drops each in 2024 — stellar hands. Yet in 2025, Williams shot up to 12 drops, with only teammate St. Brown with more at 13 as he battled through a wrist injury. It was a negative for their 2025 season, but it does not negatively affect their outlook for next season in my mind. Based on their depth of targets, including end-zone targets, St. Brown lost a minimum 32 fantasy points to drops (if he had zero yards after catch), with Williams at 25.3. If they went back to two drops each, that boosts them substantially, but even a more likely 5-6 drops helps by a couple PPG.

Top-5 WRs in Minimum Points Lost to DropsPlayer

Points Lost to Drops

Chris Olave, Saints

52.5

Rome Odunze, Bears

35.5

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

32

Jordan Addison, Vikings

30.3

Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals

29.4

Chris OlaveWhen looking at the names who lost the most points to drops in 2025, one stands above the rest. Chris Olave's points lost was 47% more than the next closest player. It was 52.2 points, for the most per game at 3.26. Olave's volume was extreme, which will lead to more drops, but even more important than the significant increase in drop rate compared to recent seasons was where the drops came. Four of Olave's drops came on end-zone targets, with no other player having even three. Six came on deep targets, with nobody else having over three. He wasn't a drop machine in the slightest, but nobody came close to the misfortune the Saints WR faced.

>Play 2026 Soccer Pick 'Em with FOX One and make your picks for the world's biggest soccer tournament

Top-3 WRs in End-Zone DropsPlayer

End Zone Drops

Chris Olave, Saints

4

Rome Odunze, Bears

2

Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals

2

Note: There are 19 receivers who are tied at 1 end zone drop.

Rome OdunzeThe Bears' former top-10 pick came second on that list with 35.5 points lost at minimum due to drops. His nine drops over 12 games were very costly as he battled through injury and late-season struggles.

The coaching staff and Odunze's trainers in Chicago don't seem to be worried about the drops. Looking at his first season, it makes sense. His rookie year, he saw 98 targets and only dropped three. I would be much more focused on the injury concerns surrounding his lower body than I would be about his drops.

>

Top-5 WRs in Pts Min Lost to Drops per TargetPlayer

Points Min Lost to Drops per Target

Jordan Addison, Vikings

0.42

Rome Odunze, Bears

0.40

Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals

0.40

Chris Olave, Saints

0.35

Quentin Johnston, Chargers

0.30

Jordan Addison It was a throwaway season for Jordan Addison in 2025, with the early suspension and QB struggles. The drops were the cherry on top, as he led the NFL in fantasy points lost per target in 2025. That staggering 0.42 was 0.04 in 2024, showing just how drastic the year-to-year difference can be for wideouts. After averaging 16.0 PPR PPG in Carson Wentz's four starts last season, Addison is an interesting sleeper now that his ADP is back in the later rounds.

Honorable MentionsIt doesn't stop there, as others have the chance to benefit from fewer dropped balls in 2025. Hopefully, Marvin Harrison Jr. rebounds after dropping multiple end-zone targets and ranking third in fantasy points lost per game. CeeDee Lamb ranked fifth in the same stat with 1.89 PPG lost at minimum as well. Rookie Tetairoa McMillan had his woes, and bad was made worse for Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr.

>The positive is the unlikelihood it'll happen again, as Cincinnati WR3 Andrei Iosivas is the only WR to be top-12 in drop rate in each of the past two seasons.